Key Takeaways
- CEG shares have fallen 26.2% in 2026, with the stock last trading at $270.26
- Discounted cash flow analysis indicates an intrinsic value of $484.34, implying 44.2% undervaluation
- The stock’s P/E ratio of 25.46x sits below the calculated fair value ratio of 32.85x
- Constellation secured a landmark nuclear energy agreement with Walmart for 176 megawatts from the Dresden facility in Illinois
- Bernstein SocGen launched coverage with an outperform recommendation, emphasizing the company’s 22 GW nuclear portfolio and Calpine integration
Constellation Energy’s performance in 2026 has been challenging from a stock price perspective. The company’s shares settled at $270.26, representing a 26.2% decline year-to-date and a 15.3% decrease over the trailing twelve months. This downturn has renewed attention to the company’s fundamental valuation among investors tracking the nuclear energy sector.
Constellation Energy Corporation, CEG
While recent performance has disappointed, the three-year total return remains impressive at 203.6%, demonstrating the substantial gains shareholders have captured over a longer timeframe.
A comprehensive DCF valuation model from Simply Wall St establishes CEG’s fair value at $484.34 per share. This creates a notable 44.2% discount to current trading levels, suggesting material undervaluation. The methodology employs a two-stage free cash flow to equity framework, beginning with approximately $601 million in latest twelve-month free cash flow and forecasting growth to roughly $7.3 billion by the end of the decade.
From an earnings multiple perspective, CEG currently trades at 25.46 times earnings. This exceeds both the Electric Utilities sector average of 21.62x and the peer group median of 21.43x. Nevertheless, Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” calculation for CEG stands at 32.85x, accounting for the company’s expansion trajectory and risk profile. Measured against this benchmark, the current earnings multiple appears compressed.
Retail Giant Enters Nuclear Energy Space
The most significant development emerged on Monday. Constellation and Walmart revealed a comprehensive long-term nuclear energy procurement contract encompassing approximately 176 megawatts of wholesale electricity from the Dresden Clean Energy Center located in Illinois. This arrangement includes 30 megawatts of new capacity expansion.
Walmart will acquire energy, associated environmental credits, and capacity through two separate 15-year commitments beginning in 2029 and 2030. This represents the retail giant’s inaugural nuclear energy procurement agreement and marks one of the earliest such arrangements between a major American retailer and nuclear generation facility.
The electricity will power an advanced perishable goods distribution center Walmart is constructing in Belvidere, Illinois. The contract also facilitates planned uprate projects at Dresden, which represent efficiency enhancements that boost generation from existing reactor units.
The Dresden Clean Energy Center maintains operating licenses extending through 2049 and 2051. Constellation secured license renewals for the facility in December 2025. The complex sustains more than 1,100 employment positions.
Wall Street Perspectives and Recent Developments
Bernstein SocGen recently launched research coverage on CEG with an outperform designation. The investment firm spotlighted Constellation’s 22 gigawatts of nuclear generation capacity and the strategic Calpine transaction as central elements of the bullish thesis.
Calpine, now operating as a Constellation division, finalized a 25-megawatt geothermal capacity expansion at The Geysers facility in California. This incremental generation will deliver power to over 25,000 residential customers on an annual basis.
Constellation additionally disclosed a secondary equity offering totaling 11 million shares priced at $281 per share, with proceeds going to selling shareholders rather than the company.
William Blair modified its data center and power sector index rating to 75 from a prior 78, citing headwinds in data center development timelines and electricity supply bottlenecks. The research firm simultaneously increased its projection for the U.S. data center power supply-demand imbalance expected in 2030.
CEG maintains operations across 55 gigawatts of total generation capacity spanning nuclear, natural gas, geothermal, hydroelectric, wind, and solar assets.
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