CLARITY Stall Opens Market Test Of Wall Street Stablecoin Deposit Warning Today

TLDR

Table of Contents

CLARITY’s Senate delay may keep stablecoin rewards active.
Banks warn rewards could put up to $6.6T in deposits at risk.
The White House says a yield ban would lift lending by only $2.1B.
Stablecoins topped $320B against $19.1T in bank deposits.
Exchange rewards may test real deposit movement before new rules.

CLARITY’s delay may turn the stablecoin rewards fight into a live market test. Banks warn that rewards could pull up to $6.6 trillion from deposits. The White House sees far less risk. With Congress stalled, exchanges may keep offering rewards and show whether stablecoins can truly shift cash away from banks.

CLARITY delay sets up stablecoin rewards test

The CLARITY Act delay may turn a policy fight into a live market test. The debate centers on stablecoin rewards and bank deposits.

Wall Street groups warn that rewards could pull money from banks. The White House view is much smaller and says the effect on lending is limited.

Galaxy Research put the bill’s 2026 odds at “50-50, possibly lower.” The delay leaves exchanges in a gray area for now.

Banks and White House split over deposit risk

The American Bankers Association warned that up to $6.6 trillion in deposits could be at risk. Banks say exchange-funded rewards may compete with savings accounts.

Standard Chartered gave a lower estimate. It said stablecoins could pull up to $500 billion from deposits by 2028.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers took another view. It said ending stablecoin yield would raise bank lending by about $2.1 billion.

That amount equals about 0.02% of lending. So the White House view is far from Wall Street’s warning.

Stablecoin market may provide real data

Stablecoins stood above $320 billion on April 27. U.S. commercial bank deposits were about $19.1 trillion.

That means stablecoins were about 1.66% of bank deposits. The market is large enough to test pressure on banks.

If stablecoins grow to $500 billion, the added amount would equal about 0.96% of deposits. This would matter more for smaller banks.

A delay may show whether users move cash for rewards. It may also show whether banks raise rates to keep deposits.

Rules could still close the rewards lane

The GENIUS Act bars stablecoin issuers from paying yield for holding payment stablecoins. Yet the third-party rewards issue remains open.

Exchanges may still offer cash back, bonuses, or other rewards. That is the area banks want closed.

The OCC and FDIC have proposed anti-evasion rules. Those rules could cover some affiliate and third-party reward deals.

If regulators act first, the test may end early. If they do not, CLARITY’s delay may test Wall Street’s $6.6 trillion warning against the White House view.