TLDR
- Circle Internet (CRCL) shares momentarily touched $90 before stabilizing near $87, after a ~30% Wednesday post-earnings rally
- Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share reached $0.43, surpassing the $0.35 consensus; revenue totaled $770 million, marking a 77% yearly increase
- Bernstein maintained its Outperform designation with a $190 price objective, noting results showed a “clear divergence from crypto”
- Mizuho upgraded its target from $77 to $90 while maintaining Neutral, citing interest-rate reductions as a possible risk
- William Blair and Clear Street both released optimistic commentary; Clear Street lifted its target from $85 to $92
Shares of Circle Internet Group briefly exceeded $90 on Thursday before consolidating around $87.
This movement followed Wednesday’s approximately 30% surge triggered by impressive fourth-quarter financial results.
Fourth Quarter Performance
The stablecoin issuer delivered Q4 2025 earnings per share of $0.43, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.35 by roughly 23%. Revenue registered at $770 million, representing a 77% year-over-year climb.
These figures caught the attention of multiple Wall Street research teams, each offering distinct perspectives on the company’s trajectory.
Bernstein maintained its Outperform stance and upheld its $190 price objective. The investment firm characterized the quarterly performance as a “clear divergence from crypto,” highlighting enhanced transaction revenue and expanding blockchain rewards stemming from Circle’s super validator position on the Canton network.
A particularly noteworthy metric Bernstein emphasized: USDC maintained directly on Circle’s platform increased to 17% of total circulation in Q4, climbing from 14% in the previous quarter.
Management guidance indicated expectations for USDC circulation to grow at a 40% annual compound rate, with alternative revenue streams projected to reach $170 million in 2026, up from $110 million in 2025.
Wall Street Divided on Future Potential
Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins elevated their price objective from $77 to $90 while retaining a Neutral rating.
They highlighted prediction platforms like Polymarket as a “visible, scaled USDC use case,” driving substantial transaction activity that bolsters both revenue streams and reserve holdings. Company executives identified Polymarket as a significant contributor to recent USDC expansion.
Mizuho also acknowledged that “agentic AI” — autonomous software agents utilizing internet-native currency — could serve as a long-term catalyst for USDC adoption, though present transaction volumes remain modest.
The research firm cautioned, however, that prospective interest-rate decreases represent a headwind. Reserve income continues to constitute the majority of Circle’s revenue, meaning any rate reduction would negatively impact that segment.
Additional Analyst Commentary
William Blair reaffirmed an Outperform rating and recommended long-term investors consider accumulating positions.
The firm envisions USDC becoming the leading commerce-oriented stablecoin, supported by 100% fiat reserves, regulatory adherence, and network effects. William Blair referenced an approximately $20 trillion cross-border B2B payment marketplace as the long-term prize, while acknowledging that clarity regarding full commercialization remains limited.
Analyst consensus projects 62% revenue expansion for Circle in the current fiscal year.
Clear Street increased its price objective from $85 to $92 while retaining a Hold rating, pointing to enhanced fundamentals following the “strong” quarterly report.
Circle currently trades around $81.88 with a market capitalization of $14.45 billion, though shares remain down approximately 51% over the trailing six-month period.
According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains more cash than debt on its balance sheet.
Bernstein cited Circle’s Arc product, the Circle Payments Network, and emerging agentic payment capabilities as key areas of product development heading into 2026.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
