CFTC Chairman Says Polymarket Outpaced 2024 Polls During US Campaign Debate

TLDR

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Selig said Polymarket was more accurate than traditional polls in the 2024 US campaign.
He said prediction markets helped cut through “fake news” during fast-moving election coverage.
The CFTC named five initial members to its innovation task force on April 11.
The agency’s innovation tracker lists crypto, AI, and prediction markets as focus areas.

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig pushed prediction markets back into the crypto policy debate after praising Polymarket’s 2024 election record. He said the platform beat traditional polls during the US campaign. He also said those markets helped cut through “fake news” as events changed. His comments came as the CFTC expanded its innovation task force.

Selig says Polymarket beat traditional polls

Selig said prediction markets gave a clearer read on the 2024 US race. He argued that Polymarket tracked voter sentiment better than many polls. He said that record made the market useful during fast news cycles. That view placed prediction markets near the center of election coverage.

CFTC Chairman Backs Polymarket: Sometimes More Accurate Than Polls
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig @ChairmanSelig argues that prediction markets are a vital tool for debunking fake news, noting they proved more accurate than traditional polling during the 2024 election.
He… pic.twitter.com/TeXJ5NCLWX
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) April 11, 2026

He said prediction markets differ from casinos because users trade against each other. According to Selig, order books give those markets structure and price discovery. He said that setup creates financial value beyond simple wagering. He also pointed to investor protections as part of that model.

CFTC chief calls for US guardrails

Selig also called for US rules that support domestic innovation. He said clear guardrails could keep jobs and product work in the country. He warned that weak rules may push talent and capital offshore. That message tied prediction markets to the wider crypto policy debate.

He framed regulation as a way to support growth and oversight at the same time. He said better rules can help US firms compete with offshore platforms. He also linked the issue to market trust and user safety. The remarks matched his push for clearer rules at the agency.

CFTC adds five members to innovation task force

The CFTC named five initial members to its innovation task force on April 11. Michael Passalacqua leads the group as senior adviser to Selig. The agency launched the task force on March 24. It said the team will help create clearer rules for innovators.

The first members are Hank Balaban, Sam Canavos, Mark Fajfar, Eugene Gonzalez IV, and Dina Moussa. Their backgrounds cover crypto law, policy advice, and CFTC work. Selig said the task force brings “deep expertise” and a commitment to clear rules. That mix gives the group legal and market experience.

The task force launch came with a new innovation tracker from the agency. The tracker gathers recent CFTC work on emerging technology. It also shows where the agency plans to focus staff time. Those areas include prediction markets, crypto, blockchain, and artificial intelligence.

Wider crypto rule debate remains unsettled

The move fits a wider push for crypto clarity in Washington. The CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission have both taken recent steps. That effort has grown under the Trump administration. Still, Congress will shape the final legal map.

A larger bill, called the Clarity Act, remains part of that debate. The measure would help define the roles of the SEC and CFTC. On X, SEC Chair Paul Atkins said both agencies are “ready to implement the CLARITY Act.” That comment added pressure for market structure legislation.

For now, the final balance of power remains unsettled. The CFTC could gain a larger role if lawmakers approve the bill. Until then, Selig’s Polymarket remarks keep prediction markets in focus. They also tie election forecasting to the broader crypto rulemaking push.