Cardano ETF Approval Odds Jumps as Grayscale Files Amended

TLDR

Table of Contents

Cardano ETF approval odds surged 11% in one week, now standing at 87%.
Grayscale filed an amended S-1 with the SEC for its Cardano ETF.
The proposed ETF will trade under ticker GADA on NYSE Arca.
Coinbase Custody will provide institutional-grade security for the ETF.

Cardano ETF approval odds have jumped sharply as Grayscale filed an amended S-1 form with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The latest move has pushed approval odds to 87%, marking an 11% rise in just seven days. This comes amid growing market attention toward crypto-based ETFs and an upcoming SEC deadline that could determine the future of the proposed fund.

Grayscale Advances Cardano ETF with Amended Filing

Grayscale has submitted an amended S-1 form to the SEC for its proposed Cardano ETF, which would trade under the ticker GADA. The ETF would be listed on NYSE Arca and directly hold ADA, the native token of the Cardano blockchain. Coinbase Custody is expected to manage asset storage for the fund.

The filing follows an earlier 19b-4 application and reflects Grayscale’s ongoing steps toward launching the ETF. Bloomberg’s James Seyffart confirmed the updated form and stated that similar steps have been taken for other assets, including Polkadot. “These are not new filings,” Seyffart said, emphasizing Grayscale’s long-term strategy with digital assets.

The fund will track the CoinDesk Cardano Price Index and avoid using leverage or derivatives. Grayscale’s approach mirrors its existing crypto trust products, which aim to offer regulated exposure to digital assets. If approved, the Cardano ETF would become one of the first U.S.-based exchange-traded products to hold ADA directly.

Approval Odds Climb Following Grayscale’s Filing

Polymarket data shows a sharp rise in the likelihood of Cardano ETF approval, increasing to 87% from 76% in one week. The spike follows the news of Grayscale’s amended S-1 form submitted on August 29. The previous high for approval odds was in July at 89%, before dropping to 75% in August.

The renewed optimism is tied to Grayscale’s active regulatory push and continued interest in crypto ETFs. Traders are watching closely, especially as the SEC reviews dozens of similar filings. The crypto market has responded with positive movement in ADA’s price and trading volumes.

Source: Polymarket; Cardano ETF Approval Odds in 2025

Analysts attribute the rise in confidence to both the timing and content of the amended filing. It addresses regulatory requirements and shows alignment with recent SEC guidelines. As of now, the approval decision has been pushed to October 26, 2025, extending from the original August 27 deadline.

SEC Faces Heavy ETF Backlog as October Deadline Nears

The SEC is currently reviewing a record number of crypto ETF applications. According to Bloomberg, there are now 96 filings under review, the highest number to date. This has caused delays, including the recent extension for the Cardano ETF decision.

The application, filed by NYSE Arca in February, aims to list and trade shares of the Grayscale Cardano ETF under a commodity-based trust rule. The SEC has requested more public comments and made no final rulings on the matter.

Regulatory changes in recent weeks have created a more open stance on crypto products. One key update was the SEC’s statement that certain staking activities are not securities. This has encouraged ETF issuers to continue adjusting their filings to match the evolving framework.

Meanwhile, Cardano has been one of the better-performing digital assets. According to Grayscale’s weekly rankings, ADA recently placed third in terms of returns, behind XRP and Stellar. This performance may also contribute to the rising optimism surrounding ETF approval.

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