TLDR
- Cardano rejected at $0.75-$0.76 resistance, falling 4.68% alongside Bitcoin’s weekend volatility
- Current price hovers around $0.68-$0.70, a key liquidity zone that could provide buying opportunity
- Technical indicators show bear pennant pattern with potential downside target of $0.464
- Whale addresses offloaded approximately 2 million ADA in a one-week period
- Despite bearish sentiment, swing traders may find favorable risk-to-reward ratio at current levels
Cardano’s price action has taken a negative turn in recent days, falling below the $0.7 mark as the broader cryptocurrency market faces selling pressure. The altcoin, which experienced impressive gains earlier in March, has since retraced much of its movement as traders take profits and watch Bitcoin’s trajectory.
ADA faced rejection at the $0.75-$0.76 area in the hours preceding publication. This rejection occurred as Bitcoin saw a 2.38% decline over seven hours, dragging ADA down by 4.68%.
The current market sentiment appears cautious. The fear and greed index sits at 30, firmly in “fear” territory. This fearful sentiment has persisted throughout March, potentially creating opportunities for contrarian investors.
Technical analysis shows Cardano has formed a bear pennant pattern on the 4-hour chart. This pattern suggests a continuation of the downward trend that began after ADA’s drop from $1.15 to $0.713.
The pattern showed a consolidation phase forming a symmetrical triangle. Unfortunately for bulls, this pattern has now broken to the downside, reinforcing bearish sentiment in the near term.
Price projections based on this technical formation suggest a measured move toward $0.464 by April. This target aligns with the magnitude of the previous downtrend.
On-chain data leaning bearish
On-chain data supports this technical bearishness. Whale activity tracked by Messari shows addresses holding at least 1 million ADA reduced their positions between March 2 and March 9.
During this one-week period, whale-held supply dropped from 23.108 billion ADA to 23.106 billion ADA. This represents a net outflow of approximately 2 million ADA from large holders.
Whale distribution often signals upcoming sell-offs in cryptocurrency markets. Historical patterns show whale accumulation typically precedes rallies, while distribution frequently indicates further downside.
The range low at $0.682 positions Cardano’s recent dip to $0.58 as an area where liquidity has likely accumulated. This could potentially pull prices lower in the short term.
Despite these bearish signals, swing traders might find opportunity in the current price levels. The $0.65-$0.68 region could serve as a candidate for a price bounce based on several factors.
The Advance/Decline line has retraced gains from early March but hasn’t crashed below local lows. Similarly, the Chaikin Money Flow remains within neutral territory.
The Awesome Oscillator shows weak bearish momentum rather than strong selling pressure. These indicators suggest the current support zone might hold.
For risk-conscious traders, last week’s low at $0.647 could present an entry opportunity. Stop-losses placed 3-5% below this level would provide clear invalidation of the trade idea.
Challenging times
Fundamentally, Cardano faces challenges beyond price action. Despite its research-driven approach and staking ecosystem, network activity metrics show room for growth.
As of March 17, 2025, Cardano ranks outside the top 10 blockchains by total value locked (TVL), with approximately $360 million in its DeFi ecosystem. This falls substantially below Ethereum’s $48.97 billion and Solana’s $7.06 billion.
Daily transaction volume on Cardano averages around 66,000 compared to Ethereum’s 1.1 million. This metric suggests adoption rates still have considerable upside potential.
The one-week liquidation heatmap shows the $0.68-$0.69 range represents a liquidity pocket near the current price. This zone could attract price action before any potential bounce occurs.
Traders should note that Cardano’s next moves will likely depend heavily on Bitcoin’s performance in the next 24-48 hours. The correlation between BTC and altcoins remains high, particularly during periods of market volatility.
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