TLDR
- The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates (4.25% to 4.50%) at today’s meeting
- Focus will be on potential end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, which could support Bitcoin and other risk assets
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at 2:30 PM ET following the policy decision at 2:00 PM ET
- This meeting is critical amid market uncertainty following recent tariffs introduced by President Trump
- The crypto market has experienced a significant downturn, with investors looking to the Fed meeting for potential support
Bitcoin investors are looking to today’s Federal Reserve meeting for help after recent market losses. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 PM ET on March 19, 2025, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
The central bank is expected to keep interest rates steady in the 4.25% to 4.50% range. This rate has remained unchanged since December 2024. But the main focus for crypto watchers will be on the future of the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) program.
Since June 2022, the Fed has been slowly reducing its balance sheet. This process followed the massive expansion that happened during COVID. That expansion helped fuel the crypto bull market of 2020-2021.
Minutes from the January Fed meeting showed that officials talked about pausing or slowing the balance sheet reduction. This has led to speculation that Powell might hint at ending QT during today’s announcement or press conference.
The end of QT could signal a new approach to monetary policy. It might mean the Fed would be ready to resume additional debt purchases if needed. While new Quantitative Easing (QE) is unlikely soon, the extra liquidity could benefit markets.
Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter, noted that ending QT would be timely. It could help avoid problems in the Treasury market, which faces $9 trillion in debt coming due this year.
New York Life Investments’ Economist Lauren Goodwin shared a similar view. She said that ending the balance sheet runoff earlier than expected could give markets the positive signal they’re looking for.
Increased market uncertainty
Today’s Fed meeting is happening during a time of increased market uncertainty. This uncertainty follows U.S. President Donald Trump’s start of trade battles with new tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
These factors, among others, contributed to the recent crypto market crash. That crash wiped out nearly a trillion dollars in value within just a few days. The Fed’s decision on interest rates could influence investor willingness to take risks in cryptocurrencies.
Analysts believe the interest rates will remain the same
Analysts believe the interest rates will stay at their current levels this March. Earlier predictions suggested the Fed would make two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025. But current thinking is that policy will remain unchanged at this meeting.
Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, explained the Fed’s likely approach. “The Fed would likely prefer to wait until they have policy clarity and a clear line of vision into the economic outlook,” she said. This suggests rate cuts might not happen until late in the second quarter or even early in the third quarter.
The FOMC meeting is a major U.S. economic event. Officials gather eight or more times yearly to discuss the country’s economic future. The current meeting began on Tuesday, March 18, and concludes today.
In his press conference, Powell is expected to discuss various topics. These include the Fed’s interest rate policy, inflation outlook, and approach to maintaining price stability in the U.S.
He might also address recession risks, economic impacts of tariffs, market reactions, and future monetary policies. FOMC members will also release updated forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and federal funds rates.
Some experts believe officials may approve pausing QT in this meeting. This would be a key development for crypto markets that have been struggling lately.
Investors can watch Powell’s speech on multiple platforms. These include the Federal Reserve’s website, their official YouTube livestream, and financial news networks like CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Fox Business, and CNN Business.
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