Bloomberg Analysts Raise Approval Odds for Spot XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETFs to 90%

TLDR

Table of Contents

Bloomberg analysts predict 90%+ SEC approval for XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano ETFs by 2025.
SEC signals shift toward crypto ETFs, with approval odds for altcoins rising to 90-95%.
Bitcoin ETFs saw record growth, fueling demand for altcoin ETFs like Solana and Dogecoin.
SEC’s growing engagement with crypto signals approval momentum for altcoin ETFs soon.

Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have significantly increased their confidence that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve several spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the end of 2025.

The analysts now predict a 90% or higher chance of approval for ETFs linked to popular cryptocurrencies like XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano. This development follows a series of recent actions and signals from the SEC that indicate a more favorable stance toward crypto ETFs.

Surge in Approval Likelihood for Altcoin ETFs

As the cryptocurrency market continues to grow, a shift in the regulatory environment is becoming evident. Bloomberg analysts recently raised the approval odds for spot crypto ETFs of Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano to 95% or higher. This adjustment follows the SEC’s increasing engagement with ETF issuers and suggests that these altcoin ETFs could be approved sooner than expected.

James Seyffart, one of the leading analysts at Bloomberg, expressed confidence in the recent changes, stating, “Eric Balchunas and I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher.” The analysts specifically noted that the SEC’s recent interactions, including requests for updated filings from Solana ETF issuers, were a positive sign.

The analysts now predict that the approval chances for Litecoin, Solana, and XRP ETFs are at 95%, with Dogecoin, Cardano, and other altcoin ETFs reaching 90%. This sharp increase in approval odds reflects a growing belief that the SEC is becoming more open to approving these financial products.

SEC’s Positive Shift Towards Crypto

The SEC has been gradually changing its stance on cryptocurrency-related products. Under the leadership of Chairman Paul Atkins, the SEC has shown a more favorable approach to digital assets. The SEC’s requests for public comments on filings for Solana and XRP ETFs, as well as the agency’s call for issuers to update certain filings, are indicative of this shift.

Seyffart and Balchunas attribute the raised approval odds to these actions. According to Seyffart, “The timing of these approvals/launches is more uncertain. It could be something we’re talking about in the next month or two, or it could be something that waits until October or later.” However, he noted that it is now clear that approval is likely, with only the exact timing remaining uncertain.

The SEC’s engagement with the crypto industry, including a recent roundtable discussion on decentralized finance (DeFi), further signals that the agency is carefully considering the role of digital assets in the broader financial ecosystem. The SEC’s willingness to engage in public discussions could be a sign that the approval process for crypto ETFs is gaining momentum.

ETF Proposals and Industry Growth

The potential approval of several altcoin ETFs is a major development in the ongoing expansion of cryptocurrency products. Spot crypto ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum without holding the assets directly. Since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, there has been significant interest and investment in crypto-related financial products. The success of these products, especially Bitcoin ETFs, has driven demand for similar products for other cryptocurrencies.

Seyffart and Balchunas have pointed out that Bitcoin ETFs have seen record-breaking growth, with products like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust reaching $70 billion in assets in a relatively short period. The growth of Bitcoin ETFs has sparked interest from asset managers looking to replicate this success with altcoins. As such, the approval of spot crypto ETFs for cryptocurrencies like Solana, Cardano, and Dogecoin is highly anticipated.

However, the analysts noted that while Bitcoin ETFs have seen tremendous success, the market for Ether ETFs has not been as strong. Despite some improvement in recent months, Ether ETFs have not attracted the same level of interest as Bitcoin. This suggests that while the market for altcoin ETFs is growing, it may take time for products like Dogecoin and Cardano ETFs to achieve the same level of success as Bitcoin-based funds.

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