TLDR
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes refuses to invest in Bitcoin at current levels, preferring to wait for Federal Reserve policy easing
- BTC currently trades near $69,926, representing a 45% decline from its October peak of $126,000
- Escalating US-Iran conflict could spark selloffs across equities and cryptocurrency markets, Hayes cautions
- Hayes clarifies that central bank money printing—not geopolitical conflict—drives Bitcoin’s value proposition
- Despite near-term bearishness, Hayes maintains his ambitious $250,000 price projection for Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes, who co-founded cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, has declared he wouldn’t allocate any capital to Bitcoin at present price levels. During an appearance on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast, Hayes explained his decision to remain on the sidelines until the Federal Reserve signals a policy pivot.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes stated.
Bitcoin currently hovers around the $69,926 mark. This represents a substantial 45% correction from the digital asset’s October all-time high of $126,000.
Hayes identified the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran as a primary factor behind his cautious market stance. He suggested that prolonged military engagement would likely force the Federal Reserve to expand its monetary base.
“The longer this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine,” he explained.
Hayes drew an important distinction between military conflict and monetary expansion. He challenged the narrative that warfare itself benefits Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
“Money printing is good for Bitcoin,” he emphasized. “That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin — when the central banks start printing money.”
Downside Risk Still on the Table
Hayes also cautioned that Bitcoin faces potential downside below the $60,000 threshold if macroeconomic headwinds intensify. Such a move could trigger widespread forced liquidations.
Bitcoin momentarily tested the $60,000 level on February 6 before recovering modestly. Hayes believes the current valuation still presents downside vulnerability.
He warned that sustained risk aversion in traditional equity markets could pull Bitcoin lower alongside stocks. A broader market correction, he suggested, might initiate a cascade of liquidations throughout the crypto ecosystem.
Other Analysts More Optimistic
Hayes’ bearish near-term outlook contrasts with other market observers. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently highlighted robust Nasdaq performance as a bullish indicator for Bitcoin.
Van de Poppe argued there are “not many arguments left for uncertainty” and anticipates continued gains for Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies in coming weeks.
Hayes hasn’t abandoned his optimistic long-term perspective. He suggested Bitcoin is unlikely to trade beneath $100,000 for many more years.
His ambitious $250,000 price target for Bitcoin remains unchanged. Hayes has publicly maintained this forecast since late last year.
Hayes emphasized that his current sideline position stems entirely from macroeconomic considerations, not from any fundamental skepticism about Bitcoin’s future potential.
He stressed that monitoring central bank policy shifts from tightening to accommodative stances will determine his re-entry timing. When monetary authorities resume expansion, he plans to deploy capital aggressively.
Bitcoin touched $60,000 briefly on February 6 before establishing a modest upward trajectory, now trading around $69,926.
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