Key Takeaways
- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes describes the current crypto market as a “no-trade zone”
- AI displacement of workers and escalating US-Iran tensions are driving his cautious stance
- Hayes identifies three potential paths that could send Bitcoin toward $80,000–$90,000
- He refuses to purchase more Bitcoin until the Federal Reserve commits to monetary expansion
- Currently, Hayes is accumulating only gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token
- He forecasts Hyperliquid will capture significant market share from Polymarket and Kalshi
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom, reveals he has conducted minimal trading activity during the opening quarter of 2025. In a statement released on April 15, Hayes characterizes today’s cryptocurrency landscape as a “no-trade zone.”
According to Hayes, two dominant factors underpin his conservative approach: the accelerating displacement of knowledge workers by artificial intelligence, and escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
Hayes warns that widespread AI-driven job replacement could unleash a cascade of consumer credit failures. He draws parallels to the devastation caused by the 2008 subprime mortgage meltdown.
Corporate workforce reductions are already underway, Hayes notes. He cited a concrete example involving a cryptocurrency gaming company CEO who leveraged AI tools to accomplish a six-month development timeline in just four days, subsequently eliminating half of the workforce.
With the median US unemployment benefit sitting around $28,000 annually while the typical knowledge worker commands $85,000 to $90,000, Hayes anticipates this income disparity will generate massive loan defaults across the banking sector.
Hayes Outlines Three Potential Bitcoin Trajectories
The Maelstrom CIO presents three distinct scenarios connected to the ongoing military conflict.
The first scenario envisions a war resolution with a return to conventional market conditions. However, AI-induced deflation persists, ultimately compelling the Federal Reserve to initiate monetary expansion to avert banking system failure.
The second pathway involves Iran maintaining strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz while imposing transit fees payable in yuan, cryptocurrency, or gold. This would force nations to liquidate US dollar-denominated holdings to satisfy these charges, creating downward pressure on treasuries, equities, and Bitcoin.
The third scenario contemplates successful US military action neutralizing Iran’s capacity to block the strait. Hayes suggests Iran would likely respond with attacks on Persian Gulf energy facilities, triggering emergency monetary expansion by central banks worldwide.
Across all three frameworks, Hayes concludes that monetary expansion becomes inevitable. Nevertheless, he maintains he will not acquire Bitcoin until the Federal Reserve takes concrete action. While acknowledging Bitcoin could surge to the $80,000–$90,000 range, he argues the current risk-reward profile remains unattractive.
Gold and HYPE: Hayes’ Current Portfolio Additions
Bitcoin has climbed more than 7% over the previous seven days, currently trading above $75,000. Hayes acknowledges this modest outperformance relative to US software equities is promising but insufficient to alter his strategic positioning.
He monitors one critical indicator: the MOVE Index, which measures US Treasury market volatility. Should this metric breach 130, Hayes anticipates some form of monetary stimulus will follow.
Presently, Hayes discloses that Maelstrom is exclusively accumulating physical gold and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token. Gold is changing hands near $4,830, showing approximately 1% gains today. HYPE has surged 18% over the past week, reaching $45.31.
Hayes predicts Hyperliquid’s forthcoming HIP-4 implementation will catalyze a substantial rally in HYPE’s price. He expects the decentralized platform to capture considerable market share from established prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.
HYPE has posted 18% gains across the previous seven days, trading at $45.31 at press time.
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