Key Highlights
- Analysis by Mercado Bitcoin reveals Bitcoin delivers superior gains compared to gold and S&P 500 within 60 days following significant global disruptions
- Following Trump’s tariff declarations in 2025, Bitcoin surged 24% compared to gold’s 8% increase and S&P 500’s 4% gain
- Amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, Bitcoin has advanced 2.2% while gold declined 11% and the S&P 500 dropped 4.4%
- March witnessed $1.32 billion in net inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs, contrasting sharply with $2.92 billion exiting gold ETFs
- Bloomberg ETF specialist James Seyffart predicts Bitcoin ETFs will ultimately exceed gold ETFs in total assets
Recent analysis conducted by Brazilian cryptocurrency platform Mercado Bitcoin demonstrates that Bitcoin consistently delivers superior performance relative to gold and the S&P 500 during the two-month period following significant global disruptions.
The investigation was spearheaded by Rony Szuster, who serves as the research director at Mercado Bitcoin. His research team examined 60-day performance intervals following various economic shocks and geopolitical turbulence, encompassing events such as the coronavirus pandemic and escalating trade tariffs from the United States.
Following the April 2025 announcement of comprehensive tariffs by the Trump administration, Bitcoin experienced a remarkable 24% appreciation during the subsequent 60-day period. Meanwhile, gold recorded an 8% increase, and the S&P 500 managed only a 4% advance during the identical timeframe.
This performance pattern emerged again during the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020. Bitcoin registered a 21% gain, significantly outpacing both gold and the S&P 500 during the comparable window.
Szuster cautioned investors against making premature assessments of Bitcoin’s crisis response. “It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,” he remarked.
He clarified that market participants frequently liquidate holdings during initial crisis moments to secure liquidity, which can temporarily suppress prices even for traditionally defensive assets.
Bitcoin Demonstrates Strength Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions
This performance trend appears to be repeating during the ongoing U.S.-Iran confrontation. Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 2.2%, climbing from roughly $65,800 to $67,300.
Gold, conventionally regarded as a crisis refuge, has experienced an 11% decline throughout this period. The S&P 500 has retreated 4.4%, marking its most significant monthly decline since 2022.
Szuster emphasized that Bitcoin achieved the strongest performance among major assets throughout the previous decade, notwithstanding its characteristic volatility.
Bitcoin ETFs Capturing Market Share From Gold Funds
ETF specialist James Seyffart discussed on the Coin Stories podcast his expectation that Bitcoin ETFs will eventually eclipse gold ETFs in aggregate assets under management.
“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart explained. He highlighted Bitcoin’s multiple functions including digital gold characteristics, value preservation, portfolio diversification benefits, and growth potential.
“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he stated.
Current fund movement statistics support this changing investor preference. Throughout March, American gold ETFs experienced net withdrawals totaling $2.92 billion. During this same interval, US spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $1.32 billion in net additions.
The most prominent US gold ETF witnessed a $3 billion single-session outflow on March 4, representing the largest daily redemption in more than two years.
Both asset classes have experienced declines across the previous 30 days. Bitcoin has retreated approximately 8%, while gold has fallen around 8.25%, indicating relatively synchronized movement despite divergent ETF activity.
In December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets researcher Chris Kuiper observed that gold and Bitcoin have historically alternated periods of relative outperformance.
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