Bitcoin Surges Past $91K As Traders Eye December Fed Rate Adjustment

TLDR

Table of Contents

Bitcoin is trading at $91,366, recovering over 4% in the last 24 hours.
JP Morgan forecasts a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the December FOMC meeting.
CME FedWatch shows an 84.9% probability of a December rate cut.
Long-term Bitcoin holders continue realizing profits, maintaining market strength.

Bitcoin is now trading above $91,000 after recovering from losses recorded earlier in November. The coin rose over 4.35% in the last 24 hours, reaching $91,366. This rebound follows a month-long decline of nearly 20%, driven by weak liquidity and broader market caution.

Traders now show renewed confidence, reflecting rising expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in December. This shift in sentiment is largely due to changing tones among policymakers and economic data suggesting a slowdown in the labor market.

JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs Point to Possible Rate Cut

JP Morgan now predicts a 25 basis-point rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The firm previously expected rates to hold steady until January but has revised its outlook. Economist Michael Feroli stated that recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a move toward easing.

“While the next FOMC meeting remains a close call, we now believe the latest round of Fedspeak tilts the odds toward the Committee deciding to cut rates in two weeks from today,” said Feroli.

Goldman Sachs also indicated that updated jobs data and softening employment trends support the case for a rate reduction. Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller confirmed he would vote for a rate cut, citing weaker-than-expected hiring numbers.

Market Data Reflects Reduced Fear and Steady Support

Data from Glassnode shows that implied volatility for Bitcoin options has declined over the past week. One-month implied volatility dropped by around 20 points, while put skew also eased. These movements suggest that traders are reducing their downside protection and expect more stable short-term performance.

Meanwhile, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Profit/Loss Ratio remains above 100x. This indicates that holders with longer investment horizons are still realizing gains, not losses. Such activity usually supports market liquidity and prevents deep market corrections.

If the ratio falls sharply, it could signal declining confidence and increase the risk of further drops. Historical data links sharp compressions in this ratio with increased selling pressure from long-term investors.

Key Price Levels and Market Outlook

Bitcoin is holding above the $89,800 support zone, with resistance forming near $91,521. A break above this level could pave the way toward $95,000. If momentum continues, traders expect possible moves toward $98,000 or even $100,000.

However, analysts caution that Bitcoin’s recovery is not yet guaranteed. If long-term holders shift from profit-taking to loss realization, liquidity may weaken. In that case, Bitcoin could fall below $90,000 again, possibly reaching $86,822 or $85,204.

Despite the recovery, structural risks remain. The crypto market continues to monitor macroeconomic data, central bank comments, and geopolitical trends that could influence both volatility and investor behavior.

Fed Futures and Political Developments

According to CME FedWatch data, traders now assign an 84.9% chance of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting. This marks a sharp increase from previous forecasts and reflects growing support for policy easing among investors.

Former White House economist Kevin Hassett is reportedly a top candidate for the next Fed Chair. He has supported aggressive monetary easing in the past. His potential appointment could shape future Fed decisions on interest rates and inflation control.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins, however, warned that inflation remains a key issue. She has urged caution before any further monetary easing is approved.