Bitcoin Short-Term Traders Face Losses While ETFs See Positive Inflows

TLDR

Table of Contents

Bitcoin short-term holders face 20–25% losses, the highest of the current cycle.
ETFs account for only 3% of total selling pressure, says a Bloomberg analyst.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded five straight days of positive inflows this week.
Average ETF cost basis is $89,600, with BTC now trading above that level.

Bitcoin short-term traders are facing the deepest unrealized losses of this bull cycle, with many holding losses between 20% and 25% for over two weeks. As this group hits peak pain, analysts suggest capitulation may signal a potential accumulation window. Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing signs of recovery, posting five straight days of inflows and trading above their average cost basis, pointing to a shift in investor sentiment.

Short-Term Holders Sit on Deep Losses

Short-term Bitcoin traders who have held BTC for one to three months are experiencing the steepest unrealized losses of the current market cycle. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfrost, these traders have faced consistent losses ranging between 20% and 25% for over two weeks.

Darkfrost said that many in this cohort have already capitulated, and such moments often indicate accumulation zones. The realized price for this group is currently around $113,692, meaning they will stay in a loss position until BTC recovers above that level.

ETFs See Five Days of Inflows

Bitcoin ETFs, which recently saw large outflows during November, are beginning to show signs of recovery. Data from Farside Investors confirms that Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive days of positive inflows, including $58 million on Tuesday.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that despite concerns, ETFs only made up about 3% of the recent Bitcoin selling pressure. He added that for every $1 billion outflow from ETFs, there is roughly a 3.4% decline in Bitcoin’s price.

Institutional Confidence Remains

Large financial institutions remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term performance, particularly into 2026. Grayscale, a major asset management firm, said this week that the current market correction could signal a local bottom. The firm stated that BTC’s future performance might challenge the traditional four-year cycle theory.

Despite the market’s recent weakness, institutions appear to be positioning for a longer-term rebound. Grayscale’s comments point to expectations of recovery ahead of 2026, with some investors using the current dip as an entry point.

ETF Buyers Exit Loss Territory

As Bitcoin continues trading above $89,600, many ETF holders are no longer sitting on paper losses. This price represents the flow-weighted cost basis for spot Bitcoin ETF buyers.

This shift suggests that recent ETF inflows are supported by improving market sentiment. While November recorded $3.48 billion in ETF outflows, recent inflows may signal a stabilization in investor behavior.

Spot Ether ETFs, by contrast, saw $9.9 million in outflows on Tuesday, while Solana ETFs recorded $13.5 million in outflows, based on Farside Investors data.

Bitcoin’s current price of around $92,942 remains below the realized price of short-term holders. However, institutional confidence, a low percentage of ETF-related selling, and a return of inflows indicate a potential turning point in market sentiment.