TLDR
- Bitcoin’s price trend shows 98% monthly similarity to 2022 bear market levels.
- November ranks among the worst 10% for Bitcoin since 2015.
- Bitcoin ETFs saw $220M in inflows over the Thanksgiving holiday week.
- Equity funds gained $900B since November 2024, showing investor return to risk assets.
Bitcoin’s recent price performance is showing a near-identical pattern to its 2022 bear market phase, with new data revealing a 98% monthly correlation. According to economist Timothy Peterson, BTC’s current behavior strongly reflects the latter half of 2022. He reported a 98% match on a monthly scale and an 80% match on a daily scale.
In a post shared on X, Peterson wrote, “2H2025 Bitcoin is the same as 2H2022 Bitcoin.” His chart analysis suggests that if this pattern continues, a recovery in BTC price may be delayed until the first quarter of 2026. The data also shows that November 2025 has been among the weakest periods for Bitcoin since 2015. Peterson commented, “This month ranks in the bottom 10% of daily price paths since 2015.”
Bitcoin Price Under Pressure as Bulls Face Disappointment
BTC has declined 36% from its all-time highs, missing investor expectations for further bullish movement. As November closed with losses, December is also projected to follow a similar trend, although with potentially reduced volatility.
Historical data shared by Moneycheck suggests that when November ends in red, December usually reflects a similar trend. However, the severity of losses often decreases. This pattern adds to concerns that Bitcoin may not see a strong year-end rally, despite early hopes for a December rebound.
Institutional Inflows Return with Strong ETF Activity
Despite Bitcoin’s price struggles, institutional investment into crypto ETFs is showing signs of a turnaround. During the Thanksgiving week, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $220 million in inflows, while Ethereum ETFs received $312 million. The figures were reported by Farside Investors.
These inflows suggest growing investor interest in digital assets through regulated investment vehicles. The data may indicate that the worst of the sell-off among institutional investors has passed. Market analysts view the renewed interest in ETFs as a signal that risk appetite may be returning.
Macro Markets Attract Capital While Crypto Lags
Macro market data also shows rising confidence in risk assets more broadly. US equity funds have attracted $900 billion in inflows since November 2024, with $450 billion of that total added in just the last five months. The data was reported by Bloomberg and JPMorgan and shared by The Kobeissi Letter.
In contrast, all other asset class funds combined have added only $100 billion during the same period. The Kobeissi Letter commented, “Equities have attracted more inflows than all other asset classes COMBINED.” This trend reflects a broader investor shift toward stocks, though crypto appears to be slowly regaining interest through ETF channels.
Outlook Remains Cautious Amid Historical Patterns
Bitcoin’s current trendline remains closely tied to its 2022 bear market performance. With December underway, price action is being watched closely for any signs of divergence from this pattern. The 98% correlation raises caution about short-term recovery expectations.
However, institutional activity through ETFs and renewed equity interest may support a market rebound if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. Observers are watching Q1 2026 as a potential period for broader recovery, should historical patterns once again repeat.
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