TLDR
Bitcoin surged past $106K after Trump signaled a Middle East ceasefire.
BTC hashrate dropped 8% in 4 days, raising mining stability concerns.
CME data shows rate cut odds jumped to 53%, boosting Bitcoin appeal.
$193M in bullish BTC positions were liquidated during weekend volatility.
Bitcoin rose sharply above $106,000 on Monday as investors responded to signs of de-escalation in the Middle East. The cryptocurrency had briefly fallen below $98,500 on Sunday before rebounding after U.S. President Donald Trump said the situation with Iran had stabilized.
In a public post, Trump called for peace between Iran and Israel and praised Iran for giving early notice of its missile launches. Markets reacted quickly to this message, with Bitcoin gaining over 4.5% in a matter of hours. Investors interpreted the statement as a sign that broader conflict may be avoided.
Ceasefire Eases Market Tension
The rise in Bitcoin’s price came after a weekend of heightened geopolitical risk. Iran had launched 14 missiles toward U.S. military bases in Iraq and Qatar, reportedly in retaliation for U.S. airstrikes on nuclear facilities. According to Trump, 13 of the missiles were intercepted, and one was not seen as a threat.
“No American lives were lost,” Trump said, adding, “Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region.”
These comments helped ease concern across risk markets. The S&P 500 gained 1% on the day, while oil prices fell after briefly peaking at $77. Traders viewed the market reaction as a signal that investor confidence remained intact despite earlier fears of wider conflict.
Crypto market sentiment turned positive as a result. According to on-chain data from Santiment, terms such as “bases” and “Iran” surged on social platforms, reflecting growing user interest in the situation’s effect on Bitcoin.
Hashrate Declines Amid Mining Questions
While prices recovered, Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 8% over a four-day period, from 943.6 million TH/s to 865.1 million TH/s. Analysts raised concerns about potential disruptions to mining operations, especially in areas connected to regional unrest.
Some observers speculated that unofficial mining in Iran could be affected. Estimates have suggested that unauthorized mining in Iran may be using as much as 2 gigawatts of electricity. However, these figures remain unverified due to limited data transparency.
Analyst Daniel Batten said such fluctuations in hashrate are not uncommon. He noted that similar drops in the U.S. have occurred during weather events that strain power grids. On April 22, for example, intense storms in Texas and Oklahoma led to a 27% drop in hashrate.
Rate Cut Expectations Strengthen Bitcoin Case
In addition to geopolitical events, investor bets on interest rate cuts also boosted Bitcoin. Following the attacks and the U.S. response, many market participants began to expect more monetary easing from the Federal Reserve.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of the Fed maintaining a 4.25% rate through November dropped from 17.1% to 8.4%. At the same time, the probability of a rate cut to 3.75% or lower rose to 53%.
This shift in expectations provided further support for risk assets, including Bitcoin. The crypto asset has historically performed better in looser monetary environments. The $106,000 rebound has renewed attention on whether Bitcoin will test the $110,000 level.
Market Still Watching Long-Term Momentum
Despite the recovery, analysts say caution remains. Bitcoin’s derivatives market remained relatively steady, with $193 million in bullish positions liquidated during the volatility. The total leveraged positions stood at $68 billion, similar to Saturday’s levels.
Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao also commented on the broader market context. “Everything before the next all-time high has to be viewed as a dip by definition,” Zhao said. He also warned that only a small number of coins will reach new highs, advising traders to look for long-term staying power.
The current market environment, shaped by geopolitics and monetary policy, continues to drive Bitcoin’s short-term direction. While the ceasefire message offered temporary relief, many investors are still closely watching global developments for further movement.
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