TLDR
- Samson Mow says Bitcoin is only slightly above inflation and not in a bull run.
- BTC fell below 100k this week as traders reacted to weak global sentiment.
- Mow says fears of Bitcoin OGs selling are overstated and not based on data.
- Crypto Fear and Greed Index returned to extreme fear while Jan3 sees continued stacking.
Bitcoin’s sharp moves this week have raised new debate across the market, yet one longtime industry figure says the real rally is still ahead. Samson Mow, the founder of Bitcoin firm Jan3, said the recent price swings show that the bull run has not begun. His comments came as Bitcoin fell below $100,000, and traders searched for clear signals during a period of weak sentiment.
Mow Says Bitcoin Is Not in a Bull Run Yet
Samson Mow said the market is still early in its growth phase, even though many expected stronger momentum this year. He said Bitcoin is only “marginally outperforming inflation” at current levels. The asset dropped to $99,607 on Wednesday after a broader market slump linked to global economic concerns and weaker trading activity.
He posted several messages on X where he explained that Bitcoin still has room to grow. Mow said the current trend is not enough to call it a bull run. He pointed to the U.S. inflation rate of about 3%, saying Bitcoin’s performance remains close to that range.
Mow also replied to a user asking whether a “Christmas god candle” is possible this year. He said he is “not uncertain,” which many viewed as a sign that he expects stronger market movement later.
Views on Cycles and Potential Market Tops
Mow has spoken often about long-term Bitcoin growth. Earlier this year, he said Bitcoin could rise to $1 million during what he called a “short and violent upheaval.” He renewed some of those views this week while discussing market cycles.
He said Bitcoin has been “basically flat” in 2025, which led some traders to believe that the cycle top has not formed. He said that if cycles remain valid, then traders may expect a peak in 2026. He also said he does not personally follow cycle theories.
Mow added that other outcomes are possible. He said the market could enter a long rising period similar to gold after the launch of exchange-traded funds. He also said there may be no clear cycles at all, which he referred to as an “Omegacycle.”
Debate on Selling Pressure From Longtime Holders
A market debate this week centered on whether early Bitcoin holders are selling. Macro analyst Jordi Visser said Bitcoin may be in an early product adoption phase where older holders sell and new buyers enter.
Mow disagreed and said fears of selling by Bitcoin OGs are not based on real data. He said traders should avoid assuming that long-term holders are selling above the $100,000 level. “People are fearful because they created their own theory,” he said in a post on Tuesday.
He added that the market should look at long-term trends rather than worry about short-term theories. “I don’t know any OGs that are selling btw,” he wrote.
Sentiment Data and Jan3’s View of Market Conditions
Market sentiment turned weak this week as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved back to the “extreme fear” zone. The shift came after the market drop and a fall in trading activity across major sectors.
Jan3 said its own index takes the opposite approach of the classic index. The firm said Bitcoin holders tend to add to their positions during price drops. “Bitcoiners? Still stacking,” Jan3 wrote. It said holders worry more about missing future gains than short-term price drops.
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