Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin declined approximately 3% over the week, retreating from $76,000 to settle near $70,000
- Federal Reserve maintained current rates while projecting just one reduction in 2026, dampening risk asset sentiment
- Citi reduced Bitcoin price projection from $143,000 down to $112,000 amid regulatory legislation delays
- Strategy expanded holdings with additional 22,337 BTC purchase, pushing total to 761,068 BTC
- Morgan Stanley submitted updated S-1 filing for spot Bitcoin ETF with proposed MSBT ticker symbol
Bitcoin’s week began promisingly, surging to $76,000 by Tuesday — marking its strongest performance since early February. However, this upward trajectory proved short-lived.
The Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rate range of 3.50%–3.75% during Wednesday’s policy meeting, continuing its pause for the second consecutive session. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that escalating tensions involving Iran could fuel inflationary pressures, diminishing prospects for near-term rate reductions. The central bank’s updated projections anticipate just one rate decrease in 2026 and another in 2027, while elevating its PCE inflation forecast to 2.7%.
This cautious monetary policy approach triggered selloffs across risk-oriented investments. Bitcoin tumbled beneath $69,000 on Thursday before staging a partial recovery to approximately $70,843 by Friday — representing a weekly decline approaching 3%.
Central Bank Stance Pressures Markets
Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, observed that the Fed increased both inflation and economic growth estimates. She characterized the press conference as heavily concentrated on inflation concerns, with an overall “rather hawkish” message.
Escalating oil valuations, sparked by Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas infrastructure, compounded the pressure. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, commented: “Elevated energy prices, postponed monetary easing, and dollar strength are fostering a more discriminating investment landscape.”
The $70,000 threshold has emerged as the critical level for market participants. Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev indicated that maintaining this support “invites a stabilization trade,” whereas breaching it “reopens the path toward the next support cluster.”
Analyst Downgrades Target as Legislative Progress Stalls
Citi’s Alex Saunders revised his Bitcoin valuation target downward to $112,000 from the previous $143,000 estimate. This adjustment reflects delays surrounding the Clarity Act — proposed crypto market structure regulation — facing obstacles in Congressional proceedings. Polymarket prediction markets now show passage probability at 60% for this year, declining sharply from approximately 90% in February.
President Trump shared on Truth Social: “The U.S. needs to get market structure done, ASAP. Americans should earn more money on their money.”
Despite the week’s negative price movement, Strategy’s Michael Saylor revealed on Monday his company acquired an additional 22,337 BTC. The firm’s cumulative position has reached 761,068 BTC, purchased at an average cost basis of $75,696.
Bitcoin spot ETF activity displayed volatility throughout the week. Monday and Tuesday recorded positive inflows totaling $201 million and $199 million respectively, before reversing to outflows of $163 million and $90 million across Wednesday and Thursday.
Separately, technical analysis highlighted by crypto account CryptoBullet identified a rising wedge formation on BTC charts, suggesting a potential downside target beneath $50,000 should the pattern confirm with a breakdown.
Morgan Stanley submitted its second amended S-1 registration with the SEC for a spot Bitcoin ETF, planned for listing on NYSE Arca under ticker symbol MSBT. Approval would establish it as the first spot BTC ETF launched directly by a leading American banking institution.
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