TLDR
- Bitcoin is positioned for a potential rally to $120,000 after a US court blocked Trump’s tariffs on May 28
- BTC hit a new all-time high of $111,970 on May 22 but has since declined to around $107,750
- The MVRV ratio currently stands at 2.36, above the crucial 365-day moving average of 2.14 but approaching resistance at 2.93
- Bitcoin has gained approximately 15% over the past month despite recent short-term price declines
- Retail investor participation remains low while institutional demand continues through spot ETFs with $2.75 billion in weekly inflows
Bitcoin traders are watching for potential price movement after a US federal court blocked President Trump’s tariff plans. The decision has sparked predictions of a rally toward $120,000 from market analysts.
The US Court of International Trade blocked Trump from imposing tariffs on May 28. The court argued that the president overstepped his authority in implementing the trade measures.
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Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal described the court decision as an “epic mic drop.” He believes the ruling will intensify momentum behind Bitcoin’s price movement.
Bitcoin reached its current all-time high of $111,970 on May 22. The cryptocurrency has since pulled back to trade around $107,750 according to CoinMarketCap data.
The recent price action shows Bitcoin down 3.36% over the past seven days. However, the broader monthly trend remains positive with gains of approximately 15%.
Trump’s initial tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China were introduced in early February. These trade measures were seen as a primary factor behind Bitcoin falling below $100,000 and remaining under that level until May 8.
Market Indicators Show Mixed Signals
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio currently stands at 2.36. This metric compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, measuring holder profitability.
CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci highlighted the importance of the 365-day Simple Moving Average for MVRV. The current ratio sits above the SMA365 level of 2.14, which historically indicates positive momentum.
However, resistance looms at the 2.93 level. This represents a critical historical point where previous rallies have encountered difficulties.
The April 2025 example showed MVRV crossing above SMA365 when Bitcoin moved from $94,000 to $111,000. This movement corresponded with the cryptocurrency setting its new record high.
Kesmeci emphasized caution as Bitcoin approaches these resistance levels. Market participants often reassess risk when these technical levels are tested.
Institutional Demand Drives Current Rally
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $2.75 billion in inflows during the trading week ending May 23. This institutional demand continues to support price levels.
On May 28, Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded $432.7 million net inflows.
Ethereum ETFs recorded $84.9 million net inflows. 👀 pic.twitter.com/tOfL2DBAZb
— Crypto Crib (@Crypto_Crib_) May 29, 2025
Hundal described “a wall of money” coming into Bitcoin through corporations, spot ETFs, and retail investors. He believes this capital flow creates a solid foundation for demand.
Retail investor participation remains notably low despite Bitcoin reaching new highs. Transfer volumes in smaller denominations under $10,000 show minimal increases.
This contrasts with historical patterns where retail participation amplified institutional-led rallies. The 2020-2021 rally gained momentum when retail investors actively joined the market.
Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick expects Bitcoin to hit $120,000 in the first half of 2025. His analysis suggests a path to $200,000 by year-end, driven by stablecoin growth.
The Trump administration has filed an appeal to the court’s tariff decision. Hundal believes market sentiment has already shifted regardless of the appeal outcome.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,000 with a marginal decline of 0.6% over the past 24 hours while maintaining its monthly gains.
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