TLDR
- Bitcoin is trading at around $96,000 after gaining about 20% during April
- ETF flows have reversed direction with a $56.2 million outflow on Wednesday after eight days of inflows
- US economic data showing Q1 contraction has created uncertainty in crypto markets
- A network age-based model suggests Bitcoin could reach $351,046 by 2025
- Technical analysts have identified $84,000 as a key support level for current price action
Bitcoin continues to trade near the $96,000 level following its strong performance in April. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been in a consolidation phase after recovering from its yearly lows.
The digital asset was trading at $94,943.4 in early Thursday trading.
This price level represents a substantial recovery from the $70,000 range seen earlier this year during March and April.
The 20% rally throughout April helped Bitcoin erase its losses for 2025 so far.
Much of this upward movement was fueled by institutional interest, particularly through spot exchange-traded funds.
Data shows these ETFs recorded eight consecutive days of major inflows through the end of April.
However, the ETF buying momentum appears to be slowing down. Wednesday saw outflows of approximately $56.2 million from Bitcoin ETFs.
This change in fund flow direction may explain why Bitcoin’s price has stabilized rather than continuing its upward trajectory.
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Market Context and Economic Factors
The current trading range comes against a backdrop of mixed economic signals. Recent data revealed an unexpected contraction in the US economy during the first quarter of 2025.
This economic uncertainty has made some investors more cautious about risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Trade tensions also continue to affect market sentiment. While President Trump postponed certain tariffs against major trading partners, the US has entered a new phase of trade conflict with China.
These factors create a complex environment for Bitcoin, which tends to be heavily influenced by broader market sentiment.
As a primarily speculative asset, Bitcoin often reacts more to investor psychology than to traditional economic fundamentals.
If economic concerns intensify in the coming weeks, this could put pressure on Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency market.
Other cryptocurrencies have shown limited movement recently. Ethereum gained just 0.1% to reach $1,808.30, while XRP dropped 1.7%.
Solana and Cardano have been trading within narrow 1% ranges. The meme token market has been similarly quiet, with Dogecoin falling 0.4%.
An exception is the TRUMP token, which has maintained most of its 50% gain from late April.
Mathematical Models and Price Projections
A fascinating analysis from 21st Capital has identified a historical pattern in Bitcoin’s price movement. The research shows that Bitcoin’s price has typically increased sixfold when the network’s age increases by 40%.
This logarithmic relationship suggests a connection between network maturity and price growth.
Based on this model, Bitcoin could reach a price of $351,046 in 2025. This would represent a 5.2x increase from the $68,000 peak recorded in 2021.
The model has shown some variance over time. It underestimated Bitcoin’s early growth up until 2017, then overestimated prices in more recent years.
External factors likely played a role in these deviations. Events such as China’s 2021 cryptocurrency ban and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes in 2022 affected Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Despite these inconsistencies, the model has demonstrated resilience through various market cycles. It captures Bitcoin’s long-term growth trend across a decade of regulatory changes and market volatility.
Technical Analysis Perspectives
Technical analysts have also weighed in on Bitcoin’s current market position. One analyst identified $84,000 as a critical support level for Bitcoin.
This level represents the point of control, where the highest trading volume has occurred. It could serve as a reference point for traders looking to enter the market.
If Bitcoin maintains support above this level, some analysts predict accelerated price movement as we move into the summer months.
Another market observer suggested that Bitcoin appears to be setting up for a move toward $125,000, based on the Golden Ratio Multiplier chart.
These technical perspectives add to the overall picture of Bitcoin’s potential price direction.
While Bitcoin experienced strong growth in April, other cryptocurrencies largely underperformed compared to the market leader.
This divergence highlights the continued dominance of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty.
Institutional investment through ETFs has primarily focused on Bitcoin rather than alternative cryptocurrencies, reinforcing this trend.
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