Key Takeaways
- Well-known Chinese Bitcoin mining figure Jiang Zhuoer forecasts BTC’s cycle bottom arriving in Q4 2026
- Price projection centers on a $42,000 to $44,000 support zone based on historical cycle patterns
- Analysis relies on Strategy’s mNAV indicator, which has recently fallen to 0.72, echoing May 2022 levels
- During the previous market cycle, mNAV reached its floor six months prior to Bitcoin’s actual price nadir of $15,476
- Jiang disclosed he has liquidated his spot BTC positions and entered short trades in anticipation of the forecasted downturn
Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent figure in China’s Bitcoin mining industry, has released a cycle-based analysis projecting Bitcoin’s next bear market floor will materialize between October and December 2026. His price target establishes a band from $42,000 to $44,000.
The projection centers on Strategy’s mNAV metric, which stands for market net asset value. This indicator measures the relationship between Strategy’s equity valuation and the underlying Bitcoin value per share.
When mNAV exceeds 1.0, it indicates market participants are willing to pay a premium above the Bitcoin backing. Conversely, readings beneath 1.0 signal diminished appetite for the stock relative to its cryptocurrency reserves.
According to Jiang’s analysis, Strategy’s mNAV has recently declined to 0.72. He highlighted that this figure mirrors the 0.7 reading recorded on May 11, 2022, which coincided with the beginning of the previous major market transition.
Previous Cycle Dynamics Inform Current Outlook
During the last market cycle, Strategy’s mNAV reached its lowest point in May 2022, when Bitcoin was changing hands around $31,017. The cryptocurrency subsequently recorded its complete cycle trough at $15,476 on November 21, 2022 — approximately six months afterward.
Jiang is extrapolating this identical timeframe pattern to the present cycle. With mNAV potentially bottoming in the current period, his analytical framework suggests October 31, 2026, as the probable date for BTC’s price nadir, with valuations targeting approximately $44,016.
He candidly acknowledged that while the model demonstrates stronger reliability in timing predictions than precise price forecasting. His $42,000 to $44,000 range accounts for this inherent uncertainty.
Jiang also referenced the de-anchoring phenomenon affecting STRC and suggested the present mNAV configuration might enable long MSTR paired with short BTC arbitrage strategies for certain market players. He positioned this observation as commentary on market mechanics rather than an optimistic Bitcoin outlook.
Jiang’s Current Market Positioning
In a statement shared on X, Jiang revealed he has liquidated his spot Bitcoin positions and established short exposure for intermediate and near-term trading purposes. He indicated his intention to resume accumulating spot holdings once prices descend toward the anticipated bottom territory.
This disclosure emerged as Bitcoin encountered renewed downward pressure in June, with BTC sliding beneath $60,000 and catalyzing more than $850 million in liquidations throughout the broader market.
Strategy equity also experienced substantial declines during the same selloff period as market participants retreated from cryptocurrency-exposed stocks.
Jiang’s precise model calculation identifies October 31, 2026, as the target date, with an estimated BTC valuation near $44,016 at that juncture.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
