TLDR
- Bitcoin price recently cleared the $106,000 zone after rebounding from $102,000 support
- Technical indicators show a bullish trend with support at $105,800 on hourly chart
- The Mayer Multiple Z-Score suggests Bitcoin remains relatively cool even at $103,000
- BTC is trading above its 200-day moving average after breaking back above this important level
- If Bitcoin clears the $107,000 resistance, it could potentially aim toward $110,000
Bitcoin has started a fresh upward move from the $102,000 support zone, showing signs of a potential run toward a new all-time high. The cryptocurrency has cleared several key resistance levels and is displaying positive price action according to recent market data.
The price is now trading above $105,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. This upward movement began after Bitcoin formed a base at the $102,000 support zone.
BTC successfully pushed above the $104,200 resistance zone and continued climbing past $105,000. The bulls have established a clear move above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downward move from $107,042 to $102,100.
This breakout has opened the doors for further upside potential. The price has now settled above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the same downward move, which is considered a positive sign by technical analysts.
A short-term bullish trend line is forming with support at $105,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. This technical pattern reinforces the bullish outlook for Bitcoin in the near term.
Technical Indicators Point Upward
The technical indicators are aligning in favor of the bulls. The hourly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is gaining pace in the bullish zone, while the RSI (Relative Strength Index) for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $107,000 level. If Bitcoin manages to close above the $107,500 resistance, it might accelerate higher toward the $108,800 level and potentially reach $110,000, establishing a new all-time high.
However, if Bitcoin fails to rise above the $107,000 resistance zone, it could face a correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $105,800 level, with major support at $105,000 and $104,200.
The main support sits at $102,500, below which BTC might gain bearish momentum. The next lower support level would be around $103,500 in the near term.
Not Overheated Despite High Price
Despite trading above $100,000, Bitcoin appears to be relatively cool according to the Mayer Multiple indicator. This metric tracks the ratio between the BTC spot price and its 200-day moving average.
At $103k $BTC, the market remains relatively cool per the Mayer Multiple, which historically has been higher than today’s value 53% of the time. For vis, tagging @PrestonPysh — a longtime Appreciator of this simple but powerful metric. pic.twitter.com/CeA9z3RRDS
— Frank (@FrankAFetter) May 17, 2025
The Mayer Multiple Z-Score, which measures how much the indicator deviates from its mean value, is currently below zero. This indicates that Bitcoin’s current price relative to its 200-day moving average is actually below the historical average.
According to this metric, 53% of all historical trading days have witnessed a higher ratio than the current level. This suggests that Bitcoin has room to run higher before reaching overheated conditions that characterized previous bull markets.
Bitcoin recently dipped below its 200-day moving average during a market downturn but has since recovered and broken back above this important trend line. The 200-day MA is generally considered a significant boundary between macro bullish and bearish trends.
During the current market cycle, Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple has exceeded its mean on several occasions, with the largest divergence occurring during the rally in Q1 2024. However, it has not yet reached the extreme deviations seen during the bull run of early 2021.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $102,700, showing a slight decrease of 1.5% over the past week. However, the technical setup suggests potential for further upside if key resistance levels are broken.
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