TLDR
- Bitcoin has broken the $104K mark, showing over 20% growth in the past month
- The “Korea Premium” is declining, indicating institutional investors are now driving the rally rather than Korean retail traders
- Retail investor participation has increased by 3.4% since April 28
- Exchange Stablecoins Ratio reached 5.3, a potential warning sign of selling pressure
- BTC continues showing bullish momentum despite some cautionary indicators
Bitcoin has continued its upward trajectory, now trading above $103,000. This represents more than 20% growth over the past month, despite a slight 0.4% decrease in the last 24 hours.
The rally has strengthened bullish sentiment in broader markets. However, recent data points to a change in the forces driving this momentum.
CryptoQuant analyst Avocado Onchain has identified a growing difference between regional and global market behavior. This is especially evident in Bitcoin prices across different exchanges.
The analyst tracked a key metric known as the “Korea Premium.” This measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Korean exchanges and international platforms.
Despite Bitcoin’s rising market price, the Korea Premium has been steadily declining.
This suggests the current rally is primarily driven by institutional flows and investor sentiment in markets outside Korea, rather than from Korean retail traders who were historically active in previous bull markets.
Institutional Investors Take the Lead
In previous cycles, particularly in 2017 and 2021, South Korean exchanges often traded BTC at premiums up to 20% higher than international prices due to local demand surges. These periods were typically seen as signals of retail-driven market euphoria.
Avocado explains that this shift in market dynamics reflects a new phase of capital distribution in the crypto space.
With spot Bitcoin ETFs now operational in the US and growing interest from corporations and sovereign wealth entities, institutional strategies are driving a larger share of trading activity rather than retail speculation.
The subdued Korea Premium failed to spike even as BTC crossed major resistance levels in recent months, confirming this trend.
According to Avocado, any Korea Premium near 10%—once considered modest—should now be interpreted as elevated in the current market context.
The absence of excessive domestic premiums highlights that Asian retail traders are no longer setting the pace in Bitcoin markets.
Instead, global institutional actors with new investment vehicles like ETFs and custodial platforms appear to be the primary drivers of demand.
Retail Investors Making a Comeback
While institutional players dominate the current rally, retail participation in the Bitcoin market is also increasing.
CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Aleman reports that smaller investors—defined as wallets holding less than $10,000 worth of BTC—are steadily returning to the market.
The BTC: Retail Investor 30-Day Change indicator turned positive on April 28. Since then, it has shown a 3.4% increase in retail buying through May 13, signaling a strong resurgence in small-investor activity.
Aleman notes that while retail investors may not always time the market as effectively as institutional players, their behavior remains a key indicator of broader market sentiment.
As more retail investors join, they create a positive feedback loop that reinforces bullish narratives and drives increased buying pressure.
Aleman suggests monitoring other on-chain indicators such as active addresses, unspent transaction output (UTXO) count, new addresses, and transfer volume. These metrics often rise together with growing retail activity.
Despite the positive signs, some warning indicators have emerged. The Exchange Stablecoins Ratio (USD) recently surged to 5.3 during Bitcoin’s rally to $104,000.
This metric suggests that BTC reserves on exchanges now exceed stablecoin balances, which could signal building selling pressure.
CryptoQuant contributor EgyHash notes that a reading above 5.0 is historically significant. A similar spike to 6.1 in January was followed by a sharp price correction, indicating that investors may be rotating from BTC back into cash.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $103,993, maintaining its upward momentum despite these cautionary signals.
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