TLDR
- Bitcoin is approaching record high of $109,350, trading around $105,500
- U.S. and China reached trade agreement, reducing tariffs from 145% to 30% for 90 days
- Bitcoin has recovered from $75,000 in early April with 10% surge last week
- BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF has seen inflows for 20 straight trading days
- Altcoins like Ether (39%), DOGE (56%), ADA (19%), and SOL (20%) have also surged
Bitcoin is on the verge of reaching a new all-time high above $109,350 as it trades around $105,500. This surge comes after a significant recovery from the $75,000 level seen in early April, with prices climbing 10% just last week.
The recent price movement has been fueled by easing trade tensions between the United States and China. After high-level negotiations in Geneva, both countries announced a temporary reduction in tariffs.
The U.S. is cutting tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for a 90-day period. China will reciprocate by lowering tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10% over the same timeframe.
🚨 Breaking:
🇺🇸 U.S. to cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days.
🇨🇳 China to cut tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10% over the same period. #Trade #USChina #Tariffs pic.twitter.com/hEwp9OJoWV
— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) May 12, 2025
This trade agreement comes after weeks of escalating trade war that had pushed import tariffs above 100% on both sides. The announcement triggered Bitcoin’s push past $105,000.
Market Indicators Remain Positive
Market data suggests this rally could continue. According to HTX Research, implied volatility in bitcoin options remains stable in the 50%-55% range.
This is well below the extreme levels of 80%+ typically seen at the peak of past bull markets. This indicates there’s no sign of speculative frenzy yet.
CME Bitcoin futures open interest currently stands at $14.8 billion. This is considerably below the $20 billion peak observed during the 2020 period, showing that leverage remains at manageable levels.
The bullish momentum has extended to the wider cryptocurrency market. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, rose 39% to $2,500 last week, its best performance since December 2020.
Other major altcoins have posted impressive gains as well. DOGE surged 56%, while ADA and SOL increased by 19% and 20% respectively.
Technical Analysis Points Upward
Technical indicators also support the bullish outlook. A new connecting bullish trend line is forming with support at $103,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
The hourly MACD is gaining pace in the bullish zone, while the RSI remains above the 50 level. Major support levels are established at $103,500 and $102,800, with resistance at $104,500 and $105,000.
Bitcoin is now trading above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from the $95,825 swing low to the $104,943 high.
If Bitcoin can break above the $105,000 resistance, it could test the $106,200 level. Further gains might push the price toward $108,000.
The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data could provide another catalyst for Bitcoin’s push to new highs. The CPI, due Tuesday, is expected to show inflation easing to 2.3% year-on-year in April from March’s 2.4%.
If this expectation holds, markets may view the inflation report as positive. Barring any negative headlines, this week’s inflation data could provide a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.
BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has registered net inflows for 20 straight trading days, amassing over $5 billion in investor money. This consistent inflow has helped support Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
Last week, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while maintaining its data-dependent stance on potential rate cuts.
HTX Research suggests that as long as yields do not climb back above 4.8% and ETF inflows remain steady, Bitcoin is likely to consolidate in the $105,000-$115,000 range while awaiting the next breakout trigger.
Bitcoin’s current position just 3.6% short of its all-time high suggests that new records could be set in the coming days or weeks as market conditions remain favorable.
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