TLDR
- Bitcoin maintained levels above $70,000 on Friday, posting approximately 7% weekly gains amid significant volatility
- International equity markets bounced back from midweek losses, with S&P 500 futures climbing to approximately 6,840
- Crude oil rallied more than 16% throughout the week following Iran’s blockade of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
- Treasury yields advanced for a fourth consecutive session, pushing the 10-year rate from 3.93% up to 4.15%
- Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate reductions dropped below even odds for two cuts annually, down from approximately 80%
Bitcoin sustained its position above the $70,000 threshold on Friday while international equity markets found stability following a volatile week marked by escalating tensions in the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. However, fixed-income markets are painting a more concerning picture.
The trading week commenced with substantial selling pressure across risk-sensitive assets following Iran’s decision to obstruct oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway responsible for approximately 20% of global petroleum supply. This action propelled crude prices upward by more than 16% weekly, marking the largest weekly advance since March 2022.
Bitcoin experienced a weekend decline to approximately $65,000 before staging a recovery. The cryptocurrency briefly touched $74,000 midweek on Wednesday before retreating to $70,182 by Friday’s trading session, maintaining a weekly appreciation of roughly 7%.
Equity benchmarks traced a comparable trajectory. S&P 500 futures contracts descended to a multi-week nadir of 6,718 on Tuesday before rebounding toward 6,840. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a weekly decline exceeding 2% and entered negative territory for 2026. The Nasdaq Composite demonstrated relative resilience, positioning for modest weekly appreciation.
The United States implemented measures to stabilize petroleum markets by committing to naval convoy protection for tankers traversing the strait, which provided some initial market reassurance. Nevertheless, energy commodity prices remained elevated.
Bond Yields Continue Upward Trajectory
The more significant market development is unfolding in fixed-income securities. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield advanced for four consecutive sessions, escalating from 3.93% to 4.15%. The two-year yield surged from 3.37% to approaching 3.60%.
Escalating yields signal mounting anxiety that elevated petroleum prices will reignite inflationary pressures, constraining the Federal Reserve’s capacity to implement interest rate reductions.
Prior to the conflict’s emergence, market participants had priced in approximately 80% probability for two Federal Reserve rate cuts during the current year. This expectation has now deteriorated to below 50%.
Bryan Tan, a trader at Wintermute, characterized the rates market as “revealing the tension in this rally,” highlighting robust economic indicators alongside an inflationary energy disruption as a combination that may compel the Fed to maintain current policy longer.
Recent U.S. economic releases reinforced this narrative. The ISM Services index registered 56.1 in February, demonstrating ongoing expansion. The ADP employment report revealed 63,000 private sector positions added, surpassing the anticipated 50,000 and representing the strongest figure since July 2025.
Alternative Cryptocurrencies and Additional Asset Classes Face Headwinds
The majority of prominent alternative cryptocurrencies declined on Friday. Ethereum retreated 3% to $2,069. XRP decreased 1.8% to $1.39. Solana slipped 1.6%, while Cardano and Polygon each posted 2.5% declines. Dogecoin also fell 1.8%.
Gold was tracking toward a weekly loss despite persistent geopolitical uncertainties, pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Analyst Jack Prandelli observed that petroleum prices historically advance 20–30% within 60 days following major geopolitical disruptions, indicating markets may be insufficiently pricing supply vulnerabilities.
Market attention now shifts to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release. Economic forecasters anticipate employment growth of approximately 55,000, declining from January’s 130,000. A stronger-than-projected figure could drive yields substantially higher.
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