Key Takeaways
- Investment bank Stifel Financial projects Bitcoin may decline to $38,000, representing a 43% decrease from approximately $65,000
- The forecast relies on a 15-year historical trendline that connects the bottom points of all significant Bitcoin corrections since 2010
- Bitcoin now shows a 0.78 correlation with the Nasdaq 100, behaving similarly to technology equities rather than a safe haven asset
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have experienced $3.8 billion in net redemptions across five weeks, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $2.1 billion
- Optimistic analysts maintain price targets between $170,000 (JPMorgan) and $250,000 (Fundstrat’s Tom Lee)
Stifel Financial, an investment banking institution with 136 years of history, has released a bearish forecast suggesting Bitcoin may retreat to $38,000. This projection represents a 43% decline from current trading levels around $65,000, and would mark a 70% correction from Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, developed this forecast by analyzing historical price patterns. His research team constructed a trendline connecting the lowest points reached during every significant Bitcoin downturn dating back to 2010, then projected this line into the present.
Previous market corrections in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022 varied in severity, yet each subsequent floor established itself at progressively higher levels. This ascending support line, when extended to current market conditions, indicates a potential floor at $38,000.
Historical data shows Bitcoin declined 93% during 2011, 84% in 2015, and 83% in 2018. The 2022 bear market found support around $15,500. Following each correction, committed long-term investors accumulated positions at increasingly elevated price points, establishing higher support levels.
Stifel emphasizes this forecast does not guarantee an imminent crash. The firm notes that market conditions which previously prevented deeper declines have not yet materialized in the current environment.
Bitcoin’s Behavior Mirrors Technology Equities
Bitcoin was historically viewed as protection against dollar depreciation. This dynamic has fundamentally shifted.
The Dollar Index fell approximately 10% throughout 2025 and an additional 1% in early 2026, yet Bitcoin declined concurrently rather than appreciating. Bannister refers to this phenomenon as the “Benjamin Button” dilemma.
Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq 100 currently stands at 0.78. This indicates Bitcoin frequently moves in tandem with technology sector equities during market selloffs.
The Federal Reserve implemented modest rate reductions in December 2025 while maintaining hawkish forward guidance. Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair suggests restrictive monetary policy may persist through 2027. Global M2 money supply is contracting simultaneously, diminishing available speculative capital in financial markets.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded $3.8 billion in net outflows spanning five weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT product alone experienced $2.1 billion in redemptions during this timeframe.
The CLARITY Act, legislation intended to provide enhanced regulatory clarity for institutional market participants, stalled in January following Coinbase’s withdrawal of support over provisions concerning stablecoin yield generation.
Bullish Counterarguments on Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Stifel’s pessimistic view faces significant opposition from other market analysts. JPMorgan projects Bitcoin reaching $170,000 within a 6 to 12 month horizon, based on volatility-adjusted comparisons with gold.
JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou calculates Bitcoin is currently trading approximately $68,000 below its fair value when measured against gold. He characterizes this as a quantitative analysis rather than a definitive prediction.
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee maintains a price target range of $200,000 to $250,000 by the conclusion of 2026. His thesis centers on the April 2024 halving event, which historically precedes significant price appreciation 12 to 18 months subsequently.
Arthur Hayes, former chief executive of BitMEX, similarly anticipates Bitcoin surpassing $200,000, attributing his outlook to what he identifies as covert quantitative easing through the Federal Reserve’s Reserve Management Purchase operations.
Previous bearish forecasts have proven inaccurate. Throughout 2022, numerous analysts warned of a potential decline to $10,000, yet Bitcoin established its low at $15,760.
Stifel identifies $54,000 as the critical support threshold. A decisive break below this level could catalyze further declines toward $45,000, subsequently opening the pathway to $38,000. Conversely, a sustained move above $58,000 to $60,000 would undermine the bearish scenario.
Bitcoin currently trades near $65,000, following $3.8 billion in cumulative ETF outflows recorded over the preceding five weeks.
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