Key Takeaways
- Bernstein identifies “AI control planes” as the critical infrastructure managing enterprise AI capabilities
- Infrastructure-as-a-Service and Platform-as-a-Service providers positioned for maximum gains
- Traditional software confronts pricing challenges, but market demand remains intact
- Usage-based billing models and AI feature bundles driving new revenue streams
- Market fears about software’s demise are exaggerated, according to Bernstein’s analysis
Bernstein’s latest five-year projection examines artificial intelligence’s transformative impact on the software sector. Their central thesis: AI isn’t eliminating softwareâit’s fundamentally altering where value originates and how it’s monetized.
The analysis centers on what Bernstein calls the “AI control plane”âa core infrastructure framework that orchestrates AI applications, information pipelines, and automated agents throughout an organization. According to the firm, businesses commanding this infrastructure layer will emerge as dominant long-term players.
Bernstein positions itself among analysts who believe AI’s influence on enterprise software is immediate and substantial, rather than a distant concern.
Infrastructure Providers Lead the Way
The research forecasts that cloud infrastructure vendors will capture the largest benefitsâparticularly companies delivering Infrastructure-as-a-Service and Platform-as-a-Service offerings. Requirements for both specialized GPU resources and conventional computing power are climbing rapidly.
This expansion is anticipated to intensify as “agentic AI”âautonomous software systems that independently pursue objectivesâgains traction within enterprise environments. These technologies demand substantial backend infrastructure to operate effectively.
Database consumption is likewise predicted to surge. Bernstein anticipates businesses increasingly abandoning traditional on-premise systems in favor of cloud-native and AI-optimized database platforms.
The firm interprets this trend as market expansion for leading technology companies rather than contraction.
Software Vulnerability Varies Significantly
Bernstein distinguishes sharply between vulnerable software categories and resilient ones. Traditional products dependent on perpetual licensing models face genuine pricing headwinds.
The MSCI World Software and Services Index has declined over 20% year-to-date, signaling widespread investor anxiety regarding AI-driven disruption. Bernstein characterizes this market response as excessive and indiscriminate.
The firm contends that AI hasn’t destroyed software demandâit has fundamentally repriced it. In IT services specifically, the business model is transitioning from hourly billing to outcome-based pricing structures.
Companies demonstrating that AI capabilities drive measurable usage expansion among existing clients will be better equipped to rebuild market confidence.
Industry perspectives reinforce these findings. Ido Arieli Noga, CEO of Yuki, maintains that AI agents don’t supplant data platformsâthey extract information from them. He cautions that proliferating agent deployment could spark dramatic infrastructure consumption increases as AI systems generate continuous queries.
Bernstein identifies one significant threat to its outlook: if computing and energy costs escalate substantially, the financial viability of AI infrastructure expansion could encounter serious constraints.
According to the firm, the critical performance indicators moving forward are usage metrics, AI feature adoption rates, and recurring revenue from consumption-based modelsânot traditional top-line growth figures.
Bernstein released this analysis on April 19, 2026.
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