TLDR
- AST SpaceMobile stock jumped 32% in the first three days of 2026, adding nearly $7 billion to market cap
- Short interest climbed to 13.6% in January from 12.1% a year earlier as the stock fell 2.3% in overnight trading
- The company posted a 324% gain over the past year and 19x returns over three years
- DCF analysis values ASTS at $102.27 per share compared to current price of $97.57, suggesting near fair value
- Stock trades at 22.09x price-to-book ratio, well above telecom industry average of 1.13x
AST SpaceMobile shares opened 2026 with force. The stock surged 32% through the first three trading days of the year.
That early momentum added nearly $7 billion to the company’s market value. The stock closed Tuesday up over 7% before pulling back 2.3% in overnight trading.
The 2026 rally builds on a strong 2025 performance. Over the past 12 months, ASTS climbed 324%.
Three-year returns hit roughly 19x, raising questions about what growth the market expects. The stock closed recently at $97.57.
Rising Short Interest Pressures Stock
Short sellers are paying attention. Short interest reached 13.6% this month, up from 12.1% a year ago.
Stocktwits users noted possible short-selling activity as the stock dipped overnight. Retail sentiment on the platform turned bullish from neutral territory last week.
Message volumes remain high. Followers on Stocktwits jumped over 50% in the past year.
Retail chatter increased 10% in the last 24 hours alone. One bullish trader predicted ASTS could surge fivefold over three years.
The company’s work centers on space-based cellular broadband. It aims to connect standard mobile phones directly to satellites through its BlueBird network.
In 2025, AST SpaceMobile struck deals with the U.S. government and Verizon. The company expanded manufacturing capacity and holds agreements with over 50 mobile network operators worldwide.
Those partnerships represent nearly 3 billion subscribers. December brought a milestone when the BlueBird 6 mission launched.
Valuation Metrics Show Mixed Picture
The satellite became the largest commercial communications array in low Earth orbit. It spans nearly 2,400 square feet.
A discounted cash flow model pegs fair value at $102.27 per share. That puts the current price at roughly a 4.6% discount to the DCF estimate.
The model projects AST SpaceMobile moving from negative free cash flow in 2026 and 2027 to positive territory. Analysts expect free cash flow of $1.12 billion by 2030.
The latest twelve-month free cash flow shows a loss of about $1.08 billion. Price-to-book ratio tells a different story.
ASTS trades at 22.09x book value. That sits well above the telecom industry average of 1.13x and peer group average of 6.73x.
The stock scores 1 out of 6 on valuation checks. It appears undervalued on just one of six metrics.
Returns over different periods paint a clear picture of momentum. Seven-day returns hit 30.6% while 30-day gains reached 32%.
Year-to-date performance stands at 16.9%. Rival Rocket Lab gained 214% over the past year while Intuitive Machines rose marginally in the same stretch.
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