Key Highlights
- Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon highlighted that AI chip demand “currently shows no signs of slowing,” driving ASML shares up 5.1%
- Though Rasgon’s analysis didn’t explicitly mention ASML, market participants quickly made the connection via semiconductor supply chain dynamics
- Bank of America maintained its Buy rating alongside a €1,598 price objective following extensive Asia-based investor consultations
- BofA identifies ASML as a “prime beneficiary” from expanding EUV technology adoption and increasing memory sector capital expenditures
- BofA’s €52 billion 2028 revenue projection appears conservative; company expected to host capital markets day this year
Shares of ASML Holding surged more than 5% during Monday’s trading session following a pair of optimistic analyst assessments that refocused investor attention on the chip equipment giant.
The rally began with commentary from Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon. While his analysis didn’t explicitly reference ASML, equity markets quickly connected the implications.
Rasgon’s research centered on the wider artificial intelligence semiconductor sector, contending that demand “currently shows no signs of slowing” despite this year’s correction in AI-related equities.
He highlighted Broadcom (AVGO) as particularly noteworthy, projecting potential 2025 earnings could quadruple to exceed $20 per share. Nvidia (NVDA) could see earnings expansion from below $5 in the previous year to $12 or higher by 2027. ASML stock was hovering near $1,369 during market hours, representing approximately 3.9% gains.
The Connection Between AI Chip Leaders and ASML’s Growth
The relationship is straightforward: accelerating AI chip demand translates to higher revenues for semiconductor designers including Nvidia and Broadcom. This momentum cascades to foundry operators like TSMC, which must increase production capacity. Capacity expansion requires purchasing additional equipment — specifically ASML’s specialized machinery.
Rasgon’s research also emphasized persistent supply limitations stemming from inadequate chip manufacturing output. This represents precisely the market condition where demand for ASML’s lithography systems remains resilient.
ASML’s current valuation stands at 46.5 times trailing twelve-month earnings. However, Wall Street projects 19% compound annual earnings growth over the coming five years, and if Rasgon’s AI demand forecast proves accurate, that expansion trajectory could support current pricing levels.
Bank of America Projects Strength Through 2027 and Beyond
Independently, Bank of America’s Didier Scemama released his own research following comprehensive meetings with institutional investors throughout Asia.
His principal conclusion: the memory semiconductor cycle is “likely to remain strong through at least 1H27E.” This outlook reinforces ASML’s order pipeline well into next year.
BofA outlined three significant growth drivers. First, high-NA EUV technology adoption is anticipated in 2028, spearheaded by TSMC and SK Hynix. Equipment availability reached 80% by late 2025 and should achieve 90% by year-end 2026. Scemama’s model forecasts 15 high-NA system deliveries in 2028.
Second, low-NA EUV capacity constraints are projected by Q4 2027, with 22 system deliveries scheduled that year. BofA anticipates ASML could announce EUV capacity expansion plans during 2026.
Third, BofA expects ASML to conduct a capital markets day sometime this year and believes the company may revise its 2030 revenue guidance upward to a range between €53.7 billion and €65.4 billion.
BofA currently projects €52 billion in 2028 revenues and characterizes this figure as “increasingly conservative” relative to Street consensus.
Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating with an unchanged €1,598 price objective, designating ASML as its preferred name within the semiconductor equipment sector.
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