Key Points
- Arthur Hayes confirmed he would avoid purchasing Bitcoin at present price levels.
- The BitMEX co-founder plans to enter the market when the Federal Reserve implements monetary easing.
- Hayes emphasized that central bank money printing drives Bitcoin appreciation more effectively than war.
- Bitcoin was trading around $69,926, approximately 45% down from its October all-time high.
- Hayes cautioned that prolonged geopolitical instability might drive Bitcoin under $60,000.
Arthur Hayes revealed he would avoid purchasing Bitcoin (BTC) at its present valuation despite holding a bullish long-term outlook. The BitMEX co-founder indicated his preference to delay any purchases until the US Federal Reserve shifts toward accommodative monetary policy. Hayes expressed these opinions during his appearance on the Coin Stories podcast recently posted on YouTube.
Hayes Links Bitcoin Investment Strategy to Central Bank Policy
Hayes confirmed his intention to remain uninvested at this time.
“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” he remarked. He emphasized that monetary policy conditions dictate his approach to crypto investments.
He indicated his readiness to accumulate when central banks restart their monetary expansion programs.
“That’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money,” Hayes explained. He maintained that money creation serves as a stronger catalyst for Bitcoin price appreciation than international conflicts.
Hayes responded to assertions that warfare benefits Bitcoin. He acknowledged the saying “war is good for Bitcoin,” while emphasizing that “money printing is good for Bitcoin.” He connected future price increases to potential Federal Reserve liquidity injections that might accompany extended conflicts.
He discussed escalating tensions between the US and Iran. He suggested that sustained conflict might compel the Fed to facilitate government expenditure. He noted that such intervention would likely involve renewed quantitative easing programs.
Bitcoin Market Position and Hayes’ $250,000 Projection for 2026
Hayes acknowledged uncertainty regarding Bitcoin’s price floor. Bitcoin was changing hands at $69,926 when this report was prepared. The asset remains roughly 45% below its October peak of $126,000.
He cautioned that continuing geopolitical instability could pressure cryptocurrency markets. He suggested that extended conflict might trigger widespread selling across equities and digital assets. He projected that such conditions could push Bitcoin beneath the $60,000 threshold.
Hayes warned that breaking below $60,000 might initiate a cascade of forced liquidations. Bitcoin momentarily tested $60,000 on Feb. 6 before establishing a modest recovery trend. He indicated that additional downside risk persists should market conditions deteriorate.
Despite his near-term caution, Hayes reiterated his extended forecast. He maintains his prediction that Bitcoin will reach $250,000 during 2026. He also suggested that opportunities to purchase Bitcoin under $100,000 will become increasingly rare.
Other market observers have shown greater immediate-term confidence. Michaël van de Poppe pointed to significant momentum in the Nasdaq. He stated that doubts about the market have diminished and anticipated continued gains for Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies.
Hayes had previously upheld his $250,000 end-of-year target as recently as October. He continues to structure his investment approach around shifts in central bank monetary policy. Bitcoin was trading near $69,926 when this analysis was completed.
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