Key Highlights
- Clinical trials for Amgen’s MariTide GLP-1 obesity treatment demonstrated approximately 20% weight reduction, rivaling Eli Lilly’s Zepbound performance
- Future formulation could enable once-quarterly dosing for MariTide, a significant advancement beyond its current monthly administration
- Truist Securities elevated AMGN price target from $319 to $325 while keeping Hold rating intact
- First quarter 2026 revenue projection from Truist stands at $9.18 billion, significantly exceeding consensus estimate of $8.58 billion
- Wall Street sees pathway for AMGN to reach previous peak of $388, representing 11% upside potential
Shares of Amgen have climbed 25% from April 2025, modestly underperforming the S&P 500’s 29% advance during the identical timeframe. Currently valued at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 15x, the stock hovers near the top of its historical five-year valuation band, with market capitalization reaching $186.4 billion.
The biotechnology giant’s experimental GLP-1 treatment MariTide is commanding heightened scrutiny from Wall Street professionals and institutional investors alike. Clinical participants demonstrated weight reduction approaching 20%, positioning the drug competitively against Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which achieves weight loss in the low-to-mid 20% range. MariTide’s performance also surpasses Lilly’s oral formulation Foundayo, which recorded approximately 12% weight reduction in clinical studies.
During January’s JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, Amgen management indicated MariTide’s potential transition to quarterly administration. This represents an improvement over the existing monthly injection schedule and provides a distinct competitive advantage versus Zepbound’s weekly dosing requirement.
Capturing meaningful market share doesn’t require Amgen to achieve category leadership in the GLP-1 space. JPMorgan research teams project the global GLP-1 market reaching $200 billion annually by decade’s end. Should Amgen secure even $5 billion in MariTide sales, this single product would deliver roughly 13% revenue growth, calculated against 2026 full-year analyst consensus of $37.8 billion.
Phase 3 clinical data disclosure for MariTide is anticipated in early 2027. Historical patterns show analysts progressively increasing revenue forecasts as pivotal trial readouts near, transitioning from conservative risk-adjusted models toward more optimistic projections.
Truist Raises Target on Expectations for Q1 Performance
Truist Securities increased its AMGN valuation to $325 from $319 this week while maintaining a Hold recommendation. The investment bank projects first quarter 2026 sales of $9.18 billion compared to Street consensus of $8.58 billion, alongside non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.24 versus consensus expectations of $4.77.
Truist’s quarterly forecasts exceed consensus across multiple flagship products including Repatha ($874M), Prolia ($878M), Evenity ($598M), and Tezspire ($487M). The firm also enhanced long-range projections for Krystexxa following enhanced patent protection extending through 2040.
Truist elevated MariTide’s probability of commercial success based on strengthened viability profiles in obesity therapeutics.
Established Portfolio Reinforces Investment Thesis
Separate from GLP-1 opportunities, Amgen’s fundamental business demonstrates resilience. Fourth quarter revenue surpassed analyst projections, while earnings exceeded forecasts by nearly 12%. Company leadership has delivered above-consensus earnings in 17 of the preceding 20 reporting periods. Consolidated revenue is projected to expand just below 3% in 2026, supported by multiple recently-launched therapies in early commercialization phases.
Amgen recently restructured $4 billion in outstanding debt at reduced interest rates. This refinancing limits future expense escalation, allowing incremental MariTide revenue to convert more efficiently into bottom-line growth.
Cantor Fitzgerald maintains a Neutral stance with $350 price objective. William Blair reaffirmed Outperform rating following favorable Phase 3 outcomes for TEPEZZA, Amgen’s thyroid eye disease treatment, which achieved 77% proptosis response versus 19.6% placebo response.
AMGN’s all-time peak stands at $388, established earlier this year. Current trading levels sit approximately 11% below that record.
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