TLDR
- Adam Back said Bitcoin faces no quantum risk for 20–40 years due to weak quantum tech.
- NIST has already approved post-quantum encryption Bitcoin could adopt later.
- Current quantum computers are too noisy and lack the logical qubits to break SHA-256.
- Bitcoin is safe today, but sensitive data encrypted today may be broken in the future.
Bitcoin remains secure from the potential threat posed by quantum computing, according to cryptographer and Blockstream CEO Adam Back. He recently stated that quantum computers are unlikely to pose a serious risk to the Bitcoin network for at least two to four decades.
Back responded on November 15 to a user on social platform X who asked about Bitcoin’s vulnerability to quantum computers. He stated, “Probably not for 20–40 years,” and added that quantum-resistant encryption is already available and could be implemented long before quantum computers become advanced enough to pose a threat.
Quantum Threat Timeline Debated
The discussion began after a user posted a video featuring venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya. In the video, Palihapitiya claimed quantum computing could break Bitcoin’s encryption in as little as two to five years.
He explained that breaking SHA-256, the encryption algorithm used by Bitcoin, would require about 8,000 qubits. However, Back and other experts noted that current quantum hardware is far from reaching this capability.
Back also explained that the theoretical risk from quantum computing may eventually reveal the identity of Bitcoin’s creator. If Satoshi Nakamoto’s coins were at risk, they might need to be moved, showing Nakamoto is still alive.
Quantum Computing Capabilities Today
Today’s quantum computers are not powerful enough to break Bitcoin’s encryption or other common cryptographic standards. Caltech’s neutral-atom quantum computer holds the current record with 6,100 physical qubits. However, this system cannot yet break RSA-2048 encryption.
Experts note that 4,000 logical qubits are needed to break encryption in ideal, error-free conditions. Current machines, however, are far from reaching that stage. Logical qubits are not the same as physical qubits; they require extensive error correction. For example, Quantinuum’s system provides just 48 logical qubits from 98 physical ones.
Gate-based quantum systems have also progressed. Atom Computing reached 1,180 qubits in late 2023. But even with this, they fall short of the scale and precision required for encryption-breaking.
Preparation and Future Concerns
Although Bitcoin is safe for now, researchers continue to warn about the future potential of quantum computing. Gianluca Di Bella, a smart-contract researcher, suggested that “we should migrate now” to post-quantum encryption for sensitive data.
He noted that quantum computers capable of breaking encryption might arrive in 10 to 15 years. However, he added that large tech firms like Google or Microsoft could make faster progress.
Bitcoin uses encryption mainly to ensure ownership of funds, not for storing private data. Therefore, attacks such as “harvest now, decrypt later” are less of a concern for the Bitcoin network.
NIST has already approved several post-quantum encryption standards, which could be integrated into Bitcoin in the future. These developments ensure the network can remain safe even if quantum computers become more advanced.
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