TLDR
- American Airlines (AAL) stock fell about 3% to 4% before the open after the company cut its outlook.
- Q3 adjusted loss was 28 cents per share, better than the 33 to 36 cents analysts expected.
- Revenue rose 19% to a record $16.3 billion, topping the $16.2 billion estimate.
- Fuel costs jumped $1.9 billion in Q3, and Q4 fuel is expected near $4.70 per gallon.
- The airline now expects a 2026 loss of $1.00 to $1.60 per share, worse than the $1.11 consensus.
American Airlines (AAL) stock fell between 3.3% and 3.6% in premarket trading on Thursday. The drop came even though the carrier beat Wall Street’s third-quarter estimates. The stock is down about 20% so far this year.
American Airlines Group Inc., AAL
The company reported an adjusted loss of 28 cents per share. Analysts had expected a loss of 33 to 36 cents, depending on the source. Revenue rose 19.3% from a year ago to $16.3 billion, above the $16.2 billion consensus.
Demand looked strong across the board. Premium revenue climbed 22.9%, and Main Cabin revenue rose 19.5%. Both helped set a record for third-quarter revenue.
Fuel was the problem. American’s fuel bill rose $1.9 billion, or about 68%, from a year earlier. The airline paid an average of $3.85 per gallon in the quarter.
CEO Robert Isom said the revenue growth was the strongest of his career. He also said historically high fuel prices hit results hard. “Our focus remains on restoring profitability,” he said.
Fourth-quarter outlook disappoints
The guidance is what moved the stock. American expects a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of 50 cents to $1.10 per share. The midpoint of negative 80 cents is well below the analyst estimate of negative 49 cents.
The company plans for fuel to cost about $4.70 per gallon in the fourth quarter. That is almost double the price from the same period in 2025. It would add roughly $2.8 billion to fuel expense compared with last year.
Fourth-quarter revenue growth is forecast at 19.5% to 22.5%. So the top line is still expected to grow fast. The fuel bill is simply growing faster.
Full-year guidance took a hit too. American now expects an adjusted loss of $1.00 to $1.60 per share. It had earlier pointed to a range from a 65 cent profit to a 65 cent loss.
Wall Street was looking for a full-year loss of about $1.11 per share. The new range sits mostly below that mark. No wonder traders hit the sell button early.
Oil price adds pressure
Oil made the morning harder. Brent crude futures rose about 3% on Thursday. Airline stocks have tracked oil prices for months, so the move weighed on the group.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) also cut its full-year profit outlook late Wednesday. That put the whole sector on watch before American even reported. Southwest stock was up about 0.6% in early action.
Some of the losses have faded since the early drop. AAL was shown up about 1% on one quote screen later in the morning. That points to a choppy open rather than a straight line down.
The next test is fuel. American has said it expects $4.70 per gallon in the fourth quarter. Any swing in Brent crude from here will likely drive the stock.
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