Will Bitcoin Beat Stocks and Gold? JPMorgan Gives Its 10-Year Forecast

TLDR

Table of Contents

JPMorgan expects Bitcoin to return 10% a year, compounded, over the next 10 to 15 years.
That tops its forecasts for US large-cap stocks (7.5%), REITs (8.2%) and gold (5.5%).
The bank projects Bitcoin volatility of about 55%, versus 18% for stocks and 17.2% for gold.
JPMorgan has not added Bitcoin to its main portfolio models because of unstable correlations and high volatility.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the forecast may be too cautious.

JPMorgan Asset Management expects Bitcoin to beat stocks, gold and real estate investment trusts over the next decade. The forecast appears in the bank’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, released October 19.

JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Outperforming U.S. Stocks and Gold Over Next Decade
J.P. Morgan Asset Management, the investment arm of U.S. banking giant JPMorgan Chase, included Bitcoin in its long-term return forecasts for the first time, projecting a 10% compound annual return over… pic.twitter.com/CMlF2xAgb3
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 20, 2026

It is the first time JPMorgan has put a long-term return number on Bitcoin. The report is part of the bank’s 31st annual capital market outlook.

The bank projects Bitcoin will grow 10% a year, compounded, over the next 10 to 15 years. That is higher than its forecasts for the other assets it covers.

How Bitcoin Compares With Stocks and Gold

JPMorgan expects US large-cap stocks to return 7.5% a year. For real estate investment trusts, the figure is 8.2%.

Gold is forecast to return 5.5% a year. Bitcoin’s 10% projection sits above all three.

The report also lists a 20.9% arithmetic average annual return for Bitcoin. That is much higher than the 10% compound figure.

The two numbers measure different things. Arithmetic returns average each year’s result, while compound returns show how growth builds over time after price swings are counted.

Volatility is where Bitcoin stands apart. JPMorgan expects annualized volatility of about 55%.

The bank forecasts 18% for US large-cap stocks and 17.2% for gold. Bitcoin’s price is expected to move far more from year to year.

Why JPMorgan Is Holding Back

Even with the higher forecast, JPMorgan has not added Bitcoin to its main portfolio models. It said Bitcoin’s unstable correlations with other assets and its high volatility make its role hard to pin down.

The bank built a separate framework to study Bitcoin alongside selected financial assets. Its core allocation models remain unchanged.

JPMorgan also projects annualized returns of 7% for a traditional portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. The bank said its assumptions are for long-term planning, not short-term market calls.

Institutional interest in Bitcoin has grown through regulated investment products, corporate adoption and trading infrastructure. A 10% compound return would not mean gains every year.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reacted in an October 20 post on X. He said the forecast shows how institutional views on Bitcoin are changing.

Hougan also said he believes the estimates are too cautious. In his view, the projected volatility is too high and the expected returns are too low.

His view is separate from JPMorgan’s published numbers.