TLDR
- OpenAI projects annualized revenue will reach or exceed $70 billion by the close of 2026.
- September figures came in near $50 billion, below earlier reports that suggested close to $70 billion.
- The mismatch stemmed from efforts to compare OpenAI’s numbers using Anthropic’s accounting approach.
- Anthropic’s annualized revenue topped $65 billion in July and could hit $100 billion by year end.
- Stock markets reacted negatively, with chip companies and the Nasdaq 100 both posting losses.
OpenAI has told investors it expects its annualized revenue to reach or pass $70 billion by the end of 2026. Growth is expected to come mainly through enterprise customers.
For September, the company’s annualized revenue stood close to $50 billion. That number fell short of earlier estimates that had placed it near $70 billion.
The figures were shared with investors as part of discussions tied to a new funding round. Sources familiar with the matter spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity.
OpenAI has not issued public comment on the numbers.
Why The Numbers Didn’t Match
The gap between the two estimates traces back to how the revenue was calculated. Some investors tried to apply the same method Anthropic uses to measure its own earnings.
Anthropic includes revenue earned through cloud partners such as Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud in its totals. OpenAI does not count this revenue the same way.
Anthropic pays its cloud partners close to 16% of every dollar earned through them. That arrangement accounted for about half of Anthropic’s total revenue last year.
This difference in accounting created confusion when outside parties tried to compare the two companies directly.
Stock Market Fallout
News of OpenAI’s lower than expected revenue led to a drop in tech shares. The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.4% following the reports.
Chip company stocks took a harder hit, falling 3.4% on the same day. The S&P 500 also closed lower as investors responded to the news.
OpenAI started this year with annualized revenue of $20 billion. That is up sharply from just $6 billion in 2024.
Anthropic has also grown at a fast pace. Its annualized revenue passed $65 billion in July and sources say it could reach $100 billion before the year ends.
OpenAI’s quarterly revenue fell behind Anthropic’s for the first time in the second quarter of this year. OpenAI posted $6.7 billion for the quarter, while Anthropic reported $11.5 billion.
Both companies are moving toward public stock listings. Going public is expected to give outside investors a clearer picture of each company’s actual finances.
OpenAI has pushed back its own listing plans until at least next year. The company says this delay is tied to its focus on AI safety work.
Anthropic may go public sooner, with a listing possibly happening as soon as November. That would put Anthropic ahead of OpenAI in reaching public markets.
OpenAI is currently negotiating with investment funds based in the United Arab Emirates. These include MGX, a fund headquartered in Abu Dhabi, to help anchor its upcoming funding round.
The company’s last funding round closed in March at $122 billion, valuing OpenAI at $852 billion at the time.
OpenAI is now seeking to raise $30 billion or more in new funding. This round would value the company at $1.4 trillion before the new capital is added.
Annualized revenue is a measurement often used by fast growing technology firms. It is calculated by taking revenue from a short period and scaling it up to represent a full year.
Analysts caution that this method can create a misleading picture of a company’s actual financial health over time.
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