TLDR
- Tesla shares dropped 1.4% to $366.76 in Monday’s early session, marking a 17% decline for the year.
- The electric vehicle maker plans to reveal its updated Roadster on Thursday, October 1, ahead of Q3 delivery data Friday.
- Analysts forecast approximately 463,000 vehicle sales for Q3, representing a decrease from last year’s 497,000 units.
- Cantor Fitzgerald maintained its Overweight stance with a $485 target, pointing to autonomous trucking opportunities.
- Both StoneX and UBS published delivery projections at or below consensus expectations before Friday’s official numbers.
Shares of Tesla traded in negative territory Monday morning, shedding 1.4% to reach $366.76 as market participants prepared for a significant week ahead. The electric automaker’s stock has declined 17% since the start of the year and is off 16% over the trailing twelve months.
Broader equity markets experienced similar weakness, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average declining approximately 0.5%. Climbing crude oil prices contributed to the downward pressure across sectors.
Tesla faces two significant milestones this week. The automaker will present the newest iteration of its Roadster on Thursday, October 1, before releasing third-quarter delivery figures the following day.
Analyst Projections for Quarterly Deliveries
Financial analysts anticipate Tesla will disclose approximately 463,000 vehicle deliveries for the third quarter. This figure would represent a decline from the roughly 497,000 units delivered during the corresponding period last year.
The previous year’s figures benefited from customers accelerating purchases to secure the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax incentive before its September expiration. This dynamic creates a challenging year-over-year comparison.
StoneX analyst Mickey Legg forecasts deliveries around 446,500 units, representing a 7% sequential decline and a 10% year-over-year drop. This projection falls short of the FactSet consensus estimate.
Even with the anticipated shortfall, Legg maintains a Buy rating alongside a $475 price objective. Cantor Fitzgerald similarly reaffirmed its Overweight recommendation, establishing a $485 target.
Cantor’s delivery projection is more conservative at 421,758 units, compared to the Visible Alpha consensus of 448,679. UBS positioned itself at the upper range, predicting 470,000 deliveries while maintaining a Neutral rating with a $385 price target.
Shifting Investment Focus
Delivery figures no longer carry the same weight they once did for Tesla’s stock performance. Market participants have redirected attention toward the company’s artificial intelligence initiatives, especially its robotaxi program and the Optimus humanoid robot project.
Tesla initiated its robotaxi service in Austin during June 2025, though expansion has proceeded gradually. The forthcoming Roadster presentation is currently attracting more investor interest than the quarterly delivery statistics.
Cantor Fitzgerald also commented on Tesla’s commercial trucking operations. The firm noted Tesla is currently manufacturing up to 1,000 Semi Trucks weekly, although the Semi will represent a minor portion of the total fleet by year’s end.
Tesla has positioned the domestic shortage of truck drivers as a catalyst for autonomous trucking demand, a sector the company intends to penetrate. However, management has indicated that scaling robotaxi and Cybercab operations takes precedence.
Cantor projects third-quarter energy storage deployments at 17.1 GWh based on Visible Alpha consensus, while its internal estimate stands at 15 GWh. This segment has emerged as another metric investors monitor beyond automotive sales.
From a regulatory perspective, the European Union delayed its decision on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving technology, with a ruling now anticipated in December. The system has already secured approval from the Dutch regulator RDW and received conditional clearance in the Czech Republic.
Tesla also disclosed intentions to increase compensation by 4% to 5% at its Berlin-Brandenburg manufacturing facility in Germany, effective October 1. This wage adjustment coincides with the Roadster presentation.
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