Key Takeaways
- Analyst Glenn Thum from Phillip Securities maintained his Sell recommendation on SPCX with a $75 target, suggesting a 47% decline potential.
- Professor Scott Galloway of NYU described SpaceX as “crazy overvalued,” estimating its true value between $10 and $30 per share.
- The company delivered exceptional Q2 results with 92% revenue growth reaching $7.8 billion, triggering a 17% share price surge.
- After peaking near $149, SPCX has retreated more than 4%, currently hovering around the $140 mark.
- Most Wall Street analysts maintain optimistic outlooks, with consensus 12-month targets averaging $232.35.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are currently changing hands around $140.50 following a notable correction from the recent post-earnings surge that encountered significant resistance near the $149 level. The equity has declined over 4% during the last trading session, and several market observers believe additional downside pressure may emerge.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
On August 17, Glenn Thum of Phillip Securities reaffirmed his Sell recommendation while maintaining a 12-month target of $75 per share. This projection implies approximately 47% downside risk from present trading levels.
Thum’s bearish stance stems from concerns about substantial capital expenditure requirements, concentrated exposure to artificial intelligence customers, and questions about the sustainability of certain cloud service agreements. According to his analysis, a significant positive revaluation would necessitate more extended customer contract commitments.
SpaceX’s second quarter 2026 financial performance was undeniably impressive at face value. Overall revenue climbed 92% compared to the prior year period, reaching $7.8 billion. Connectivity segment revenues increased 66% to $4.3 billion, with Starlink subscriber count doubling to 12 million users. Artificial intelligence revenues exploded 247% to $2.6 billion, propelled by new infrastructure and cloud service agreements.
Skeptics Grow More Vocal
Scott Galloway, a marketing professor at NYU and prominent podcaster, expressed even more pessimistic views than Thum. During a podcast episode released this Monday, he stated SpaceX’s fair value ranges between $10 and $30 per share.
“It’s still crazy overvalued,” Galloway stated. “I think this is a $10 to $30 stock.”
His most bearish estimate would value SPCX at under 7% of its current market price. Even his optimistic scenario places the stock at approximately one-fifth of today’s trading level.
Galloway identified the restricted float as a major factor behind the initial price spike. At the time of the initial public offering, only approximately 4% to 5% of SpaceX’s equity was available for public market trading, creating supply constraints. The company’s expedited inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index subsequently forced passive index funds into buying positions.
He also highlighted a $25 billion bond issuance completed soon after the IPO, despite SpaceX maintaining $100.8 billion in cash reserves. This financing move, according to Galloway, indicates the company’s expansion strategy relies increasingly on debt financing.
Additional Bearish Voices Emerge
George Noble, a former portfolio manager at Fidelity Overseas Fund, characterized SpaceX as among “the best shorts in the market.” He forecasts the stock could decline up to 50% before year-end and believes $30 represents a fair valuation.
“Grandma’s 401(k) now owns a $2 trillion company at roughly 90 times revenues. That’s outrageous,” Noble remarked.
Noble also questioned the rapid timeline for SPCX’s Nasdaq-100 inclusion, suggesting this accelerated addition created artificial buying pressure.
Despite his bearish outlook, Galloway indicated he would refrain from personally establishing a short position. He recognized that Musk’s capacity to generate market enthusiasm could drive SPCX higher independent of underlying business fundamentals, and noted the stock could exhibit meme-like behavior should Musk announce another attention-grabbing initiative.
The consensus Wall Street perspective remains considerably more constructive. Among 31 analysts monitored by TipRanks, the mean 12-month price objective stands at $232.35, implying potential upside of 64%. The most aggressive bull target reaches $800.
At the time of publication, SPCX’s market capitalization approximates $1.9 trillion.
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