Key Takeaways
- SPCX shares jumped 16% Friday when the first lockup period ended without triggering anticipated insider selling pressure
- Monday premarket saw an additional 3.1% gain, with shares trading at $137.09
- Citi maintained its $200 target price while raising 2026/27 projections, forecasting approximately $1 trillion in revenue by 2031
- Second quarter revenue reached $7.81 billion, representing 91.9% year-over-year growth and surpassing EPS projections
- Another lockup period concludes August 20, releasing approximately 7% more restricted shares
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) reached $137.09 during Monday’s premarket session, climbing 3.1% and building on Friday’s impressive 16% rally that followed an uneventful first lockup expiration.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Market analysts had prepared for significant selling activity Thursday when approximately 911 million restricted insider shares gained trading eligibility. The anticipated selling pressure never materialized. Short positions found themselves exposed, while institutional investors who had remained cautious seized the opportunity to acquire shares at lower prices.
Prior to this unlock event, merely 5% of SpaceX’s available shares traded on the open market. With the float now exceeding 1.5 billion shares, institutional investors can establish meaningful positions without causing the dramatic price swings that characterized the stock’s initial trading period.
Since its June 12 public debut, the stock has experienced significant turbulence. Shares peaked at $192.58 on June 15—just three trading days after the IPO—before declining approximately 30% heading into Friday’s session.
On Monday, Citi reaffirmed its $200 price objective while increasing revenue projections for 2026 and 2027, estimating SpaceX could achieve roughly $1 trillion in revenue by 2031. Company management has indicated they anticipate reaching that milestone by 2030, one year ahead of Citi’s forecast.
Citi analysts indicated they possess “greater confidence in management’s vision than consensus.” This represents a substantial endorsement considering the stock’s recent price fluctuations.
Second Quarter Results Surpass Analyst Predictions
On August 4, SpaceX unveiled its Q2 financial performance. The company generated $7.81 billion in revenue, marking a 91.9% increase compared to the prior year’s corresponding quarter. The adjusted loss of $0.09 per share came in better than the $0.26 consensus forecast.
Capital expenditures continue to raise questions among investors. The company invested $18.4 billion in capex throughout the quarter, predominantly allocated to AI infrastructure development, and management has indicated this heightened spending pattern will persist.
Terafab Partnership with Tesla
SpaceX and Tesla revealed plans for a collaborative $16.8 billion investment to construct Terafab, a semiconductor manufacturing plant located in Grimes County, Texas. This facility aims to produce proprietary AI chips supporting Tesla’s robotics initiatives and SpaceX’s orbital computing infrastructure.
Elon Musk additionally mentioned that Starship may have overcome a critical technical challenge that could enhance launch cost efficiency moving forward.
Among Wall Street analysts, SPCX receives 3 Strong Buy ratings, 25 Buy ratings, 9 Hold ratings, and 2 Sell ratings. The consensus price target stands at $229.71.
The subsequent lockup expiration arrives August 20, which will release another 7% of restricted shares currently held by employees and early investors from the pre-IPO phase.
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