Key Takeaways
- SPCX shares declined 0.5% to $114.60 on Monday despite executing a successful Starship Flight 13 on Friday
- The stock has plummeted approximately 38% across three weeks, trading beneath its $135 initial public offering price
- HSBC launched coverage with a Hold recommendation and $115 target, factoring in a 2x “innovation premium” while still pricing below market value
- Analysts anticipate SpaceX will consume approximately $106 billion in capital before achieving positive free cash flow near 2030
- Critical August milestones approach: Q1 financial results on August 4 and significant lock-up release on August 6 that may more than double available shares
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) decreased 0.5% to $114.60 during Monday’s trading session, despite successfully executing its 13th Starship test mission on Friday night. The broader equity markets posted gains — with S&P 500 futures advancing 0.9% and Dow futures increasing 1.1% — making SPCX’s decline particularly noteworthy.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The aerospace company’s shares have experienced declines for three consecutive weeks, shedding approximately 38% during this period. SPCX currently trades below its $135 debut price from June and has retreated more than 40% from its peak closing price of $201.80.
Friday’s Starship mission achieved most operational objectives. The spacecraft’s upper stage successfully deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites, executed an in-space engine relight, and completed a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. While the booster failed to achieve its soft landing, KeyBanc analyst Michael Leshock characterized the mission as “near perfection” and a “meaningful success.”
The next test flight, Flight 14, is anticipated within weeks. Chief Executive Elon Musk announced SpaceX will attempt to capture the upper stage using the launch tower’s mechanical arms — a maneuver previously accomplished only with the booster.
Wall Street Questions Premium Valuation
HSBC became the first major financial institution to publish research coverage on SPCX on July 25, assigning a Hold rating alongside a $115 price objective — trailing the stock’s $118.24 price at that time. The bank’s methodology involved valuing each SpaceX division independently and incorporating a 2x “innovation premium” to reflect Musk’s entrepreneurial history. Despite this favorable adjustment, HSBC’s target remained under market pricing.
Under HSBC’s baseline forecast, revenues are projected to surge beyond $38.2 billion in 2026, compared to $18.7 billion in 2025. However, the bank anticipates GAAP losses persisting through 2027 and negative free cash flow extending until approximately 2030, necessitating cumulative cash consumption of roughly $106 billion.
The bank’s optimistic scenario values SPCX at $293 per share — contingent upon Starship commercialization, accelerated Starlink subscriber adoption, and earlier-than-expected AI revenue generation.
AI Division Weighs on Financial Performance
SpaceX’s first quarter 2026 financial data revealed $4.69 billion in revenue alongside a $1.94 billion operating deficit. Starlink generated the majority of profits with $3.26 billion in sales and $1.19 billion in operating profit. The AI division contributed $818 million in revenue while recording a $2.47 billion operating loss.
Capital expenditures reached $10.1 billion during Q1, with $7.7 billion allocated to AI infrastructure — the business segment HSBC considers most challenging given fierce competition from Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.
Starlink’s customer base has expanded robustly, climbing to 10.3 million subscribers by quarter-end from 5 million one year prior. However, average monthly revenue per user fell to $66 from $86 as the company penetrated lower-cost international markets.
The company will release its inaugural public earnings report after market close on August 4. Just two days afterward on August 6, the initial lock-up period expires, potentially releasing 911.5 million shares for trading — which could expand the public float from approximately 4.9% to roughly 12%.
Short sellers have accumulated approximately $15.5 billion in unrealized profits since the IPO, with short interest representing nearly 31% of shares available for trading.
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