Key Takeaways
- Macquarie maintained its Outperform rating with a $250 price target on SpaceX, suggesting approximately 100% upside from current levels near $127
- Shares climbed more than 6% on Tuesday, ending a seven-day decline
- The stock remains over 20% below its initial closing price following the June 12 market debut
- A major agreement with Anthropic secures all capacity at SpaceX’s Colossus 1 facility, encompassing 300MW of power and over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs
- The company will announce its inaugural public quarterly results on August 4, coinciding with the first stage of IPO lock-up release
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) surged over 6% during Tuesday’s trading session, climbing back to approximately $127 after Macquarie advised clients to view the recent decline as an attractive entry point. The stock has experienced consistent pressure since its landmark IPO on June 12 and continues trading beneath its $135 offering price.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The investment firm maintained its Outperform stance while projecting a $250 price target ā representing roughly 100% potential appreciation from current levels. The research team headed by Paul Golding employed a combination of Sum-of-the-Parts valuation and Discounted Cash Flow models, incorporating both traditional launch services revenue and developing AI computing income streams.
The core investment thesis: SpaceX has evolved beyond traditional aerospace operations.
According to Macquarie’s analysis, the company now functions as a computational infrastructure provider ā controlling satellite communications bandwidth, reusable rocket technology, and proprietary semiconductor and data center assets. The research suggests that Starlink’s satellite constellation and plans for deploying up to one million satellites powered by continuous solar energy could circumvent the electrical and thermal limitations currently hampering terrestrial data centers.
Major Partnerships Validate Strategic Direction
The AI infrastructure narrative has already translated into concrete business agreements. Anthropic has committed to utilizing the entire computing capacity at SpaceX’s Colossus 1 data center, securing approximately 300 megawatts of electrical capacity and access to more than 220,000 Nvidia GPUs. Additionally, Alphabet maintains multi-billion-dollar AI computing agreements with SpaceX, establishing the firm as a major infrastructure provider beyond its traditional launch services.
Macquarie interprets these partnerships as initial validation of the business model ā reinforcing their recommendation to “buy any dip.”
Skepticism remains among some market observers. Former hedge fund executive Whitney Tilson contended last week that shares remain overpriced at 92 times trailing revenue, suggesting the valuation is nearly ten times excessive when applying what he considers a generous 10x revenue multiple.
Market bears seem aligned with the doubters. Short interest has risen to approximately one-third of SpaceX’s publicly available shares, and because only limited stock is tradable before lock-up restrictions expire, the substantial short positioning has amplified price swings. Elon Musk responded on Monday via X, stating that institutions maintaining significant short positions in SpaceX face a “very low” chance of long-term success.
First Earnings Report Coincides with Lock-Up Release
The upcoming critical milestone arrives on August 4, when SpaceX will publish its first quarterly financial results since going public. This date simultaneously initiates the initial phase of a graduated IPO lock-up expiration schedule.
After the earnings announcement, company insiders gain authorization to sell up to 20% of their restricted holdings ā potentially as many as 911.5 million shares. An additional 10% becomes available for sale if shares trade at least 30% above the IPO price during five of the ten trading sessions preceding the earnings date.
Additional concerns emerged last week when SpaceX’s 13th Starship test mission was terminated less than a second before launch due to multiple engine ignition problems. Macquarie indicated the short-term technical setback doesn’t alter the fundamental long-term investment rationale.
SPCX presently trades near $127, remaining more than 20% below its initial public closing price.
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