Key Takeaways
- Bank of America upgraded its HIMS price target to $37 from $36 while maintaining a Neutral stance due to valuation worries
- New oral Wegovy subscribers showed no month-over-month growth in June according to credit card transaction data
- HIMS shares have surged more than 45% over the last month, fueled by the Eucalyptus purchase and international growth strategy
- More than 28% of the company’s float remains sold short, indicating continued bearish sentiment
- Analyst consensus leans Moderate Buy, though the $30.14 average target suggests approximately 16% potential decline
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is currently changing hands at $36.07, marking a remarkable 45%-plus gain over the past 30 days. Yet Bank of America Securities recently lifted its price objective to just $37 from $36 while sticking with a Neutral recommendation — a reserved stance that speaks volumes about analyst sentiment.
Hims & Hers Health, Inc., HIMS
BofA’s Allen Lutz highlighted emerging evidence that customer retention for the new oral Wegovy offering might be underwhelming. This represents a classic subscription model challenge: members sign on at an introductory $39 monthly rate, but when that price escalates to $149 in the second month, a significant portion discontinue service.
Transaction data from BSM Analytics tracking credit and debit card spending revealed that HIMS customer counts remained stagnant on a month-over-month basis throughout June. This stalled growth raises red flags when substantial second-half EBITDA expansion is already factored into projections.
Rival platform Ro, which introduced oral Wegovy approximately two to three months before HIMS entered the market, is already experiencing declining new customer acquisitions and a flattening user base. Bank of America anticipates HIMS will encounter comparable headwinds.
Despite the reserved outlook, BofA did incrementally increase its valuation framework — moving to 34.5x CY26 EV/EBITDA from 33.5x — acknowledging better-than-anticipated initial subscriber uptake and marginally elevated peer multiples. The stock presently commands an EV/EBITDA multiple of 104.65x based on trailing twelve-month EBITDA figures.
International Expansion and Product Innovation
The optimistic investment thesis for HIMS revolves around its aggressive expansion beyond U.S.-based GLP-1 offerings. During early June, the company completed its purchase of Eucalyptus, which operates the weight management brand Juniper, instantly establishing presence across Germany, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Canada.
HIMS simultaneously introduced its “Labs AI” clinical technology platform and debuted Testosterone Rx+, a once-daily tablet combining enclomiphene with tadalafil. These strategic initiatives aim to reduce revenue concentration stemming from GLP-1 injectable dependence.
A potential demand catalyst looms on the horizon: approximately 10% of large corporations are projected to eliminate obesity medication coverage from their 2027 employee benefit packages due to escalating costs, potentially driving more self-pay patients toward direct-to-consumer alternatives like HIMS.
Regulatory authorities recently indicated they might remove restrictions affecting 12 therapeutic peptides — a possible policy shift that leadership could leverage to support its ambitious 2030 revenue objective of $6.5 billion.
Upcoming Earnings Report Crucial
Short interest continues hovering above 28% of available shares. This bearish positioning stems from a challenging year opening — during February, regulatory action from the FDA and DOJ compelled HIMS to withdraw its $49-per-month oral semaglutide product merely 48 hours post-launch. A subsequent patent infringement lawsuit from Novo Nordisk emerged before the parties negotiated a strategic collaboration agreement in March.
The forthcoming Q2 financial results will draw intense scrutiny for subscriber retention metrics and profitability trends as the business transitions customers from compounded formulations to branded pharmaceutical products.
Current Wall Street consensus stands at Moderate Buy — comprising four Buy recommendations and nine Hold ratings, with zero Sell opinions. The consensus price target of $30.14 suggests roughly 16% downside from present trading levels.
Several analysts maintain more bullish perspectives: Canaccord Genuity holds a $40 target alongside a Buy rating, while Barclays maintains a $39 objective, emphasizing GLP-1 expansion potential and elevated website traffic following the Novo Nordisk collaboration.
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