Key Takeaways
- Dan Ives from Wedbush initiated coverage on SpaceX with a Buy recommendation and $190 price target, assigning a $2.5 trillion enterprise value.
- The firm attributes approximately $1.8 trillion to SpaceX’s artificial intelligence operations and roughly $600 billion to its Starlink satellite network.
- Starship represents the company’s greatest potential upside while simultaneously posing the most significant risk — with only 12 test flights completed to date.
- Shares of SpaceX have fallen approximately 27% from their peak of $225.64 following the company’s public debut, currently hovering near $171.
- The equity continues trading at approximately 115 times trailing twelve-month revenue, while net losses are projected to expand this year.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are currently changing hands around $171, representing approximately a 27% decline from the post-initial public offering peak of $225.64 reached on June 16, merely days following the company’s June 12 market debut.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Notwithstanding this correction, Wall Street interest continues accelerating rapidly. Approximately a dozen analysts presently provide coverage on SPCX. Industry sources anticipate this figure could surge to nearly 50 within the next several weeks.
The most recent assessment arrived from Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who initiated coverage Tuesday evening with a Buy recommendation alongside a $190 per share price objective.
Ives assigns SpaceX a total enterprise value of $2.5 trillion, employing a sum-of-the-parts valuation framework that evaluates the launch operations, Starlink satellite internet service, and artificial intelligence segments independently.
His analysis places the rocket launch business at approximately $66 billion. The Starlink division, which currently serves more than 10 million subscribers while achieving profitability, receives a valuation near $600 billion.
The artificial intelligence segment represents Ives’ highest conviction component — valued at $1.8 trillion. His projections indicate the AI division will deliver over $80 billion in annual revenue by 2028, even before orbital computing facilities become operational.
Starship: The Critical Variable
Ives provides straightforward commentary regarding the primary uncertainty factor. Starship, the company’s next-generation fully reusable launch system, promises to reduce orbital access costs by 90% relative to the Falcon 9 platform.
This dramatic cost improvement underpins virtually every forward projection for SpaceX — including advanced Starlink constellation deployment, space-based AI infrastructure, and NASA’s Artemis moon landing program. However, the vehicle has successfully completed merely 12 orbital test campaigns. The 13th mission is scheduled for the coming weeks.
“The vehicle is the single largest source of value in the franchise as much as its largest risk,” Ives wrote.
Among the 12 analysts currently providing SPCX coverage, seven maintain Buy recommendations. The consensus price target across this group stands at approximately $240 — substantially above current trading levels.
Premium Valuation Persists
Even following the recent decline, SpaceX commands a market capitalization ranging from roughly $2.16 trillion to $2.3 trillion. This represents approximately 115 times the company’s 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion.
Top-line growth reached 33% in the previous fiscal year, with potential for acceleration in 2026 as new artificial intelligence contracts materialize, Starlink subscriber growth continues, and launch service demand expands.
Nevertheless, the enterprise recorded a net loss of approximately $4.9 billion during 2025. The AI business segment contributed the majority of these losses. Given ongoing substantial infrastructure capital expenditures, analysts anticipate losses will expand further throughout 2026.
Ives maintains a track record of aggressive bull-case scenarios. He simultaneously covers Tesla (TSLA) with a Buy rating and maintains the Street’s most optimistic $600 price target.
SpaceX equity advanced 1.8% during Wednesday’s premarket session to $173.95, while S&P 500 and Dow futures both indicated lower openings.
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