Key Takeaways
- Micron shares rocketed more than 15% on June 24 following exceptional Q3 earnings, reaching an all-time peak of $1,255 before declining 6.7% Friday
- Mizuho lifted its price objective to $1,375 with an outperform stance, joined by numerous other Wall Street firms raising targets
- Reports suggest Apple is pursuing U.S. clearance to obtain DRAM from China’s CXMT — Mizuho contends this won’t impact Micron’s supply dynamics
- South Korea unveiled a long-term memory fabrication expansion plan; Mizuho characterizes it as political theater lacking firm capital allocations
- Fall HBM contract negotiations identified as the critical upcoming catalyst, with potential pricing reaching 2.5x current 2026 rates for 2027 agreements
Micron Technology (MU) experienced a dramatic surge exceeding 15% on June 24 following exceptional third-quarter financial results, touching a record peak of $1,255. However, the semiconductor giant surrendered a portion of those advances, finishing Friday’s session down 6.7% with trading volume reaching 86.4 million shares — approximately double its three-month average.
Third-quarter earnings per share registered at $25.11, surpassing analyst consensus projections of $20.98 by $4.13. Top-line revenue reached $41.46 billion, exceeding Wall Street’s $35.91 billion forecast. This represents a remarkable 345.8% year-over-year growth compared to the identical quarter in the previous year.
The memory chip manufacturer also issued fourth-quarter 2026 guidance projecting EPS between $30.00 and $32.00, topping analyst expectations.
Notwithstanding the recent retreat, Mizuho’s TMT sector specialist Jordan Klein is counseling investors to maintain their positions. The firm elevated its price objective from $1,150 to $1,375, suggesting approximately 13% potential upside from Friday’s closing price.
Multiple investment houses joined with their own target increases. Susquehanna elevated its objective to $2,000, Needham pushed to $1,650, Deutsche Bank adjusted to $1,550, Wedbush climbed to $1,400, and Wolfe established a $1,500 target. Among 39 analysts monitoring the stock, 31 maintain Buy ratings while five hold Strong Buy recommendations.
Klein highlighted two news items that bearish investors are emphasizing this week. The initial report indicates Apple is pursuing U.S. governmental authorization to procure DRAM from Chinese semiconductor producer CXMT, currently listed on the Commerce Department’s Entity List.
Klein’s interpretation: this development reflects industry-wide supply constraints rather than a Micron-specific challenge. Micron has already reoriented its production portfolio toward hyperscaler HBM and LPDDR DRAM contracts, alongside automotive and industrial clients. Any negative impact from Apple would disproportionately affect Samsung and SK Hynix.
Whether federal regulators will approve the license remains uncertain. Klein additionally observes that China’s domestic consumption of CXMT production is substantial, and Beijing may resist diverting that capacity to international purchasers.
South Korean Fabrication Plans: Political Theater Over Substance
The second bearish development involves a formal declaration from SK Hynix, Samsung, and South Korean government officials regarding a multi-decade memory fabrication expansion encompassing roughly four new facilities. Klein characterizes this primarily as political positioning, emphasizing the absence of concrete capital commitments anticipated this year or next. Micron already maintains four new fabrication facilities within its own development roadmap.
Apple CEO Tim Cook characterized the memory supply crisis to the Wall Street Journal as a “once in a century flood,” stating he had witnessed nothing comparable throughout his 40-year career. Elon Musk amplified the commentary on X, describing the capacity shortfall relative to demand as “insane.”
Fall Contract Negotiations Emerge as Primary Catalyst
A Digitimes analysis released Monday forecasts memory manufacturers could escalate HBM pricing — including next-generation HBM4 — to approximately 2.5 times current 2026 levels during upcoming annual supply negotiations for 2027 deliveries.
These negotiations occur annually each autumn. Klein suggests any developments in September or October indicating robust HBM contract pricing could drive Street earnings projections for 2027 significantly higher.
Micron’s upcoming earnings announcement is scheduled for September 29, 2026 — coinciding precisely with the anticipated intensification of those HBM contract discussions.
Consensus earnings per share projections for fiscal fourth quarter 2026 stand at $25.72 on anticipated revenue of approximately $43.58 billion. All 25 analyst revisions during the past 90 days have trended upward.
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