XRP Reaches Extreme Oversold Levels Seen Only Twice Before in Its History

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

XRP approaches a rare death cross formation with its 20-week EMA nearing its 200-week EMA around the $1.39–$1.40 level
Historical death cross patterns resulted in rallies of 20% and 82.7%, indicating potential for short-term upside
Major short liquidation concentration of $236.5 million exists in the $1.37–$1.40 price range
Cryptollica notes XRP has reached this extreme oversold state just three times across 13 years
Cycle-based projections from EGRAG CRYPTO and CW point to potential long-term targets ranging from $5.70 to $8.00

As of June 23, 2026, XRP is changing hands around $1.13–$1.14, well below recent peaks but displaying a convergence of technical indicators that market analysts believe could spark a relief rally approaching 25%.

The 20-week exponential moving average for XRP currently hovers just above the 200-week EMA, positioned near $1.39 and $1.40 respectively. Should the faster-moving average drop beneath the slower one on a weekly closing basis, it would create an uncommon death cross formation.

While this pattern typically carries bearish connotations, XRP’s historical response to this specific crossover has been distinctly different, characterized by mean-reversion bounces returning to the longer-term average.

During 2019, XRP experienced approximately a 20% recovery following a comparable configuration. The 2022 occurrence produced an even stronger 82.7% rebound. In both instances, the 200-week EMA functioned as a price attractor.

If history repeats, XRP could target the $1.39–$1.40 region — representing approximately 23% to 25% appreciation from present price levels.

The weekly Relative Strength Index for XRP currently registers just above 30, the commonly recognized threshold indicating oversold territory. Such readings typically suggest diminishing downward momentum.

Significant Short Position Concentration Near $1.40

CoinGlass liquidation heatmap analysis reveals a substantial $236.5 million accumulation of short liquidations positioned within the $1.37–$1.40 range above the current market price.

Should XRP begin an upward trajectory, traders maintaining short positions in this zone would face forced buybacks to close their positions. This buying activity could provide additional fuel for a move toward $1.40.

Cryptollica, a market analyst, shared observations on Sunday indicating XRP’s 10-day RSI is hovering in the low-30s, approaching levels historically associated with significant accumulation periods during prior market cycles.

THE MOST HATED RALLY IN CRYPTO
In 13 years, XRP has only been this washed out 3 times.
The first 2 times, the crowd laughed, ignored it, and only understood the setup after price had already left.
people mocking $XRP now will not say they missed it; they will say it was… pic.twitter.com/PlxLCWz9hY
— Cryptollica (@Cryptollica) June 21, 2026

“XRP has only experienced this level of exhaustion 3 times in 13 years,” Cryptollica stated. “During the first 2 occurrences, the majority dismissed it, overlooked the opportunity, and only recognized the setup once price had already surged.”

Cryptollica’s analysis also identifies XRP trading above the lower edge of a multi-year ascending channel pattern that has connected significant lows dating back to 2017. This support boundary is located approximately at $0.75.

Large Holder Accumulation and Extended Timeframe Projections

EGRAG CRYPTO employs a cyclical analysis method centered on a “Central Line” — representing a macro equilibrium threshold that distinguishes accumulation periods from expansion phases.

#XRP – Central Line Targets Are Not Random ( $5.7-$8):
🟪The Base:
▫️This projection starts from #XRP’s Central Line.
▫️This line has historically acted as the macro divider between accumulation and profit-taking zones.
▫️Below it: fear and opportunity.
▫️Above it: expansion… pic.twitter.com/Bj0Knfs5B4
— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) June 22, 2026

Drawing from historical growth patterns showing expansions of 200% to 330% above this equilibrium level, the framework suggests an optimistic target of $8.00 and a conservative scenario target of $5.70.

Meanwhile, analyst CW noted increasing divergence between whale wallet activity and retail trader behavior, with major holders expanding long positions in XRP derivatives.

Javon Marks emphasized that each significant momentum trough throughout XRP’s trading history has preceded gains exceeding 10x, proposing a potential target above $15. He characterized the present situation as consistent with a broader historical pattern of increases surpassing 1,000% from comparable low points.

$XRP's momentum shows that prices can be positioning here for another bottom and run.
A more than 10X followed every single one of these bottoms in momentum!
With the next target above $15 another >1,000% increase fits right in the picture… pic.twitter.com/lXVmnMmA5Q
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) June 22, 2026

Current metrics show XRP’s 24-hour trading volume at $1.45 billion, with its market capitalization reaching $70.99 billion, after recording a 6.02% increase over the past day.