Key Takeaways
- Oppenheimer launches coverage with Outperform rating and $190 price target for SpaceX
- New Street Research establishes $165 target, representing ~22% premium over IPO price
- Projections show $195 billion in revenue by 2030 with $65 billion operating profit
- Current valuation implies ~38x 2030 operating profit compared to Alphabet’s 13x multiple
- Retail investor demand reportedly exceeds $70 billion; minimum 20% retail allocation expected
SpaceX is preparing for its highly anticipated public market entrance on Friday, June 12, with shares priced at $135 per share — and financial analysts are wasting no time establishing their positions.
Pierre Ferragu from New Street Research emerged as one of the earliest voices, initiating coverage with a $165 price target. This represents approximately 22% upside from the offering price and suggests an equity valuation near $2.3 trillion. While Ferragu hasn’t issued a formal buy or sell recommendation due to uncertainty around the opening price, his optimistic scenario envisions shares reaching $330.
Timothy Horan of Oppenheimer took an even more aggressive stance, assigning an Outperform rating alongside a $190 price objective. KGI has similarly issued a Buy recommendation, though detailed analysis from that firm remains limited in circulation.
Ferragu’s financial model forecasts 2030 revenues hitting $195 billion alongside operating profits of $65 billion. His valuation framework attributes $650 billion to the Starlink satellite internet business and $575 billion to artificial intelligence initiatives.
Averaging the price targets from Ferragu and Horan yields a valuation of roughly 38 times projected 2030 operating profit for SpaceX. By comparison, Alphabet currently commands a multiple of approximately 13 times on the same basis.
Understanding the Valuation Premium
Horan characterizes SpaceX as “the only vertically-integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent.”
His investment case revolves around the company’s unique capability to construct and maintain space-based computing infrastructure. Elon Musk has maintained that orbital data centers could operate more economically than terrestrial facilities in the coming years.
This narrative has resonated strongly with investors. Industry sources indicate retail demand for the offering may surpass $70 billion. The company plans to direct at least 20% of available shares toward retail participants — an unusually generous allocation for a transaction of this magnitude. International buyers may be limited to less than 10% of the total.
Retail trading platforms such as Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab are anticipated to provide individual investors with IPO access.
Senator Elizabeth Warren has urged the SEC to postpone the listing, introducing a political dimension to what has otherwise been characterized by widespread investor excitement.
Early Trading Indicators
While SpaceX hasn’t begun official trading, perpetual futures contracts on cryptocurrency platform Hyperliquid were valuing shares around $164 during early Thursday activity — remarkably close to Ferragu’s projection.
It’s important to recognize that New Street, Oppenheimer, and KGI are not serving as underwriters for this offering. Financial institutions participating in IPO underwriting typically face mandatory waiting periods before publishing research. Independent firms face no such limitations.
Oppenheimer simultaneously upgraded its Tesla stock forecast in the same research note, citing improved electric vehicle demand fueled by rising oil prices.
Should SpaceX achieve a closing price near the $164 futures indication on Friday, analysts may find themselves revising their targets upward within days of the debut.
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