Key Takeaways
- CNBC’s Jim Cramer anticipates NVDA will experience a fleeting 10-12 minute surge post-earnings before facing intense selling pressure he describes as “relentless hammering.”
- Nvidia’s Q1 2026 earnings release is scheduled for today, May 20, following market close, with analysts projecting approximately $79 billion in revenueārepresenting an 80% increase year-over-year.
- Market participants are prioritizing forward-looking guidance over historical performance, especially regarding AI chip orders from tech giants like Microsoft, Meta, and Google.
- GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson suggests prior post-earnings declines stem from derivatives market dynamics and “options walls” rather than underlying business weakness.
- Analyst consensus remains at Strong Buy for NVDA with an average 12-month price target of $281.97, suggesting potential upside exceeding 27% from present trading levels.
Nvidia is set to unveil its first-quarter financial results today, May 20, 2026, following the closing bell. Analyst expectations center around approximately $79 billion in revenueārepresenting an 80% surge compared to the same period last year.
While such figures would mark a historic achievement, breaking records might not guarantee sustained upward momentum for the stock.
Jim Cramer, the well-known CNBC personality and former hedge fund operator, issued a cautionary note via X on Tuesday morning. He advised investors to anticipate a momentary spike in NVDA’s share price immediately following the announcementālasting merely 10 to 12 minutesābefore selling activity intensifies.
“The Nvidia pattern we are all now used to: an initial fly-up, lasting 10-12 minutes, then a relentless hammering that takes the stock to where it breaks the chart. Do not be fooled by the first move,” Cramer wrote.
As of May 19, NVDA was changing hands at approximately $223.57, reflecting a year-to-date climb of nearly 20%. Since June 2017, the stock has skyrocketed by roughly 6,000%.
The Real Focus for Market Participants
Today’s earnings announcement extends beyond a single quarter’s financial performance. Nvidia stands at the heart of the artificial intelligence infrastructure expansion, making its forward-looking statements critically important for the broader technology sector.
Investors are concentrating on three primary areas: the durability of AI chip demand from major customers including Microsoft, Meta, and Google through the remainder of the year; developments regarding Nvidia’s latest chip architectures and global operations; and whether management’s projections can support the stock’s elevated valuation following the rally that commenced in March.
Derivatives markets are anticipating a potential swing of 6% to 10% in either direction when Thursday’s trading session begins.
Concerns About Long-Term Viability
Gordon Johnson, an analyst with GLJ Research, offers an alternative interpretation for Nvidia’s consistent post-earnings slides. He attributes the February decline to derivatives market activity, characterizing it as an “options wall”āa situation where brokers unwind previously sold call positions rather than reflecting any fundamental business deterioration.
Johnson has also questioned how Wall Street formulates earnings projections, arguing that analysts frequently reduce estimates before announcements to create the appearance of beats.
Additionally, infrastructure capacity challenges persist. Various 2026 assessments reveal that data center construction schedules are falling behind, while component shortages for power infrastructure have extended beyond five years in certain instances. Some of Nvidia’s delivered Blackwell GPUs may remain idle, prompting questions about whether major customers will maintain current purchasing levels.
Notwithstanding these reservations, Cramer has maintained his optimistic stance on Nvidia. The analyst community assigns the stock a Strong Buy ratingācomprising 40 Buy recommendations, one Hold, and one Sell over the last three monthsāwith a consensus 12-month price target of $281.97.
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