Key Takeaways
- Ondas is set to release Q1 2025 results Thursday morning, with Wall Street forecasting approximately $38ā39M in revenue and a per-share loss of $0.05
- The defense backlog on a pro forma basis now totals $457M, significantly enhanced by the $175M acquisition of Mistral which contributed roughly $264M
- Every analyst tracking ONDSā7 to 8 in totalāmaintains a Strong Buy rating, with consensus targets near $20.13ā$20.14, suggesting potential gains of 118ā124% from the current $9.04 level
- The options market anticipates a 15.25% price swing following the earnings announcement, signaling considerable volatility expectations
- Company leadership projects 2026 revenue reaching a minimum of $375M, though full profitability across all operations isn’t anticipated until the first quarter of 2028
Ondas Holdings faces a critical moment as it prepares to unveil quarterly results Thursday morning. Currently trading near $9.04 and boasting gains exceeding 56% over the last half-year, the company finds itself under intense scrutiny from investors eager to confirm whether fundamentals justify the rally.
Wall Street forecasts place Q1 revenue in the $38ā39 million range, alongside an anticipated loss of $0.05 per shareārepresenting substantial improvement versus the year-ago period when the company generated only $4.2 million in revenue with a $0.15 per-share deficit.
Such dramatic year-over-year growth demands attention. The primary drivers stem from strategic acquisitions and an aggressively expanding portfolio of defense-related contracts.
The standout metric this quarter centers on contract backlog. Ondas‘ pro forma backlogāincorporating the recent additions of Mistral and World Viewāreached approximately $457 million at the end of March. The Mistral transaction, valued at $175 million, alone injected roughly $264 million into the pipeline.
Leadership has established a 2026 revenue goal of no less than $375 million. Needham’s Austin Bohlig believes successful execution could push that figure toward $500 million.
Substantial Contract Wins Build Momentum
Beyond projections, tangible contract activity reinforces the growth narrative. Ondas maintains involvement in approximately $80 million worth of active demining operations linked to Israel’s Eastern Border Security Barrier.
Additionally, subsidiary INDO Earth Moving secured an initial $68 million order as part of a broader $140 million multi-year military engineering engagement. These extended-duration agreements provide meaningful revenue visibility going forward.
The company has also established the ONBERG Autonomous Systems joint venture based in Germany, positioning itself to capture opportunities within European defense drone markets.
Last quarter delivered record Q4 revenue totaling $30.1 million, significantly exceeding analyst projections of $15.9 million. However, the bottom line disappointed sharply, with a $0.34 per-share loss.
Wall Street Sentiment and Market Positioning
Analyst consensus remains unanimously bullish, with every covering analyst maintaining Strong Buy recommendations. Price objectives span from $20 to $25, clustering around a $20.14 consensusārepresenting more than a 100% premium to current trading levels.
Maxim’s Matthew Galinko recently elevated his target to $22 from $16, highlighting that Ondas possesses sufficient capital to sustain operations through breakeven, which management projects for 2028.
Yet the derivatives market tells a more cautious story. Options positioning implies a 15.25% move in either direction following the releaseāan unusually wide expected range that underscores meaningful uncertainty regarding revenue trajectory execution.
The path to profitability extends further out. While management anticipates product-level profitability arriving by the third quarter of 2026, comprehensive company-wide profitability won’t materialize until the opening quarter of 2028.
Thursday’s announcement represents the initial litmus test for whether the substantial backlog translates into recognized revenue at the accelerated pace both management and analysts anticipate.
Ondas releases results before Thursday’s opening bell on May 14, 2026.
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