Quick Summary
- Independent researcher Giancarlo Lelli successfully compromised a 15-bit elliptic curve encryption key with quantum computing technology, securing a 1 BTC reward from Project Eleven
- The achievement marks the most significant publicly documented quantum assault on elliptic curve cryptographic systems
- While Bitcoin operates on 256-bit encryption — substantially more complex than the compromised 15-bit key — experts warn the technological divide is shrinking
- Approximately 6.9 million BTC stored in addresses with publicly visible keys face potential vulnerability to advancing quantum capabilities
- Security specialists disagree on urgency — projections range from several years to multiple decades before quantum computing presents genuine danger
Giancarlo Lelli, working independently, has successfully compromised a 15-bit elliptic curve cryptographic key utilizing a publicly available quantum computing system. For this accomplishment, Project Eleven, a startup focused on post-quantum security solutions, presented him with a 1 BTC prize — valued at more than $78,000.
According to Project Eleven, this represents the “largest quantum attack” on elliptic curve cryptographic systems ever documented in the public domain.
Lelli employed a modified version of Shor’s algorithm to extract a private key from its corresponding public key within a search space containing 32,767 potential values. Shor’s algorithm specifically exploits the mathematical foundations securing digital signatures across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the majority of blockchain networks.
Prior to Lelli’s breakthrough, engineer Steve Tippeconnic had compromised a 6-bit elliptic curve key in September 2025 utilizing IBM’s 133-qubit quantum processor. Lelli’s 15-bit achievement represents a 512-fold increase in complexity.
Bitcoin’s security architecture relies on 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography. While this creates a substantial gap compared to the 15-bit key Lelli compromised, Project Eleven contends the challenge is “increasingly viewed as an engineering problem and not a fundamental physics problem.”
“The resource requirements for this type of attack keep dropping, and the barrier to running it in practice is dropping with them,” explained Alex Pruden, CEO of Project Eleven.
Quantifying Bitcoin’s Exposure
Project Eleven’s analysis suggests approximately 6.9 million Bitcoin remain stored in wallet addresses where public keys have been exposed on the blockchain. These holdings could face vulnerability should quantum computing power reach sufficient levels.
Bernstein analysts estimate roughly $450 billion worth of Bitcoin sits in legacy wallet addresses with publicly visible keys.
The danger remains theoretical for now. Existing quantum systems fall considerably short of the capabilities required to compromise production-grade cryptographic systems.
Researchers at Google published findings suggesting that breaking 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography might require fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. Subsequent research from the California Institute of Technology in collaboration with quantum startup Oratomic proposed the threshold could be as minimal as 10,000 qubits.
Industry Response and Preparation
Bitcoin core developers have drafted transition strategies toward post-quantum cryptographic standards. Similar initiatives are underway at Ethereum, Tron, StarkWare, and Ripple.
Speaking at Paris Blockchain Week in April, Blockstream CEO Adam Back emphasized the importance of early preparation, regardless of distant timelines. “Quantum computing still has a lot to prove. Current systems are essentially lab experiments,” Back stated.
Bernstein has recommended measured responses, characterizing quantum computing as a medium to long-term technological evolution rather than an imminent crisis.
According to Bernstein analysts, the Bitcoin community generally operates on a three to five-year preparation timeline.
Project Eleven, supported by Castle Island Ventures, Coinbase Ventures, and Variant, secured $20 million in Series A funding earlier this year, achieving a $120 million post-money valuation.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
