Amazon (AMZN) Stock Gets $325 Target from KeyBanc Amid AWS Surge

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

KeyBanc analysts increased their Amazon price objective from $285 to $325, suggesting approximately 30% potential upside.
AWS cloud division accelerating toward ~30% growth rate identified as primary catalyst by analyst Justin Patterson.
Anthropic partnership, robust grocery segment, and Amazon Leo satellite service highlighted as supplementary growth engines.
Short-term operating income concerns flagged due to elevated fuel expenses and Iran conflict affecting logistics.
AMZN shares declined 0.9% to $248.28 Monday, trading just 1.4% beneath its November 2025 all-time closing high.

Amazon received an encouraging outlook from KeyBanc over the weekend, though investors showed hesitation on Monday.

Justin Patterson, analyst at KeyBanc, upgraded his price objective for Amazon (AMZN) from $285 to $325 while maintaining an Overweight stance. Based on Monday’s closing price of $248.28, this target suggests approximately 30% appreciation potential.

Amazon.com, Inc., AMZN

Patterson’s investment case revolves heavily around AWS. He characterized the cloud division’s evolution into approximately a 30% growth engine as “the story of the quarter,” highlighting expanded infrastructure capacity and multiple new customer acquisitions.

Anthropic receives particular attention in the analysis. KeyBanc calculates that AWS represents approximately 60% of Anthropic’s overall expenditure, with the AI company’s accelerating recurring revenue viewed as “a meaningful tailwind” for Amazon’s cloud business.

Patterson also adjusted his revenue forecasts upward, increasing his 2026 estimate by 1% and his 2027 projection by 2%. He anticipates earnings per share nearing $10 by 2027, establishing his $325 target at 33 times that earnings figure.

Additional Growth Catalysts Beyond AWS

The analyst identified three supplementary growth opportunities deserving attention. Grocery operations continue demonstrating resilience. Amazon Leo, the satellite broadband initiative, approaches deployment. Additionally, Amazon’s pending Globalstar acquisition provides crucial additional spectrum assets.

“Given early large customer wins, M&A, and more successful launches, we believe Amazon Leo is well-positioned to gain traction as an alternative option in the market,” Patterson wrote.

Wall Street sentiment appears generally supportive. Truist Securities maintains a $285 target based on AWS AI adoption trends. TD Cowen projects $300, anticipating Q1 2026 revenue will surpass consensus expectations.

Geopolitical Tensions Create Near-Term Headwinds

Challenges remain on the horizon. The Iran conflict has created bottlenecks at the Strait of Hormuz while driving fuel costs upward. Patterson anticipates these factors will impact Amazon’s second-quarter guidance negatively.

Amazon has already taken defensive action. Earlier this month, the company instituted a 3.5% fuel surcharge for third-party marketplace sellers, which Patterson views as providing partial margin protection.

KeyBanc maintains a cautious stance on first-half operating profitability overall, pointing to elevated gasoline prices and Amazon Leo infrastructure investments as near-term margin pressures.

During Monday’s session, AMZN decreased 0.9% to $248.28 as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions weighed on broader equity markets.

Shares concluded Friday’s trading at $250.56, positioning the stock just 1.4% below its record closing peak established in November 2025.

Amazon has scheduled its first-quarter earnings release for April 29.