Key Takeaways
- Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket delivered AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird 7 satellite to an unsustainably low orbit, leading to planned de-orbit
- ASTS shares plummeted approximately 14% during Monday’s premarket session
- While insurance should cover satellite costs, the timeline setback poses the greater concern
- The company requires 45–60 operational satellites for commercial launch but currently operates only six
- Scotiabank’s Andres Coello maintains an Underperform rating with a $41.20 target, suggesting roughly 52% additional downside
AST SpaceMobile encountered a significant obstacle this past Sunday when Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket failed to position its BlueBird 7 satellite into the proper orbital trajectory.
Following separation from the launch vehicle, the satellite successfully activated. However, the orbital altitude proved insufficient for sustained operations via its integrated propulsion system. AST has announced plans to de-orbit the spacecraft, allowing it to disintegrate upon atmospheric reentry.
According to company statements, insurance coverage should offset the satellite’s replacement cost. While this mitigates immediate financial damage, the temporal consequences present a more substantial challenge.
Monday’s premarket trading saw ASTS shares decline approximately 14%, trading near $73.96.
The company is competing aggressively to deploy a satellite network capable of providing space-based 5G connectivity. Commercial operations in northern regions require deployment of 45 to 60 functional satellites. The current constellation consists of merely six.
Management maintains its target of approximately 45 operational satellites by the conclusion of 2026. Sunday’s launch failure complicates that ambitious schedule.
Intensifying Rivalry in Space Connectivity
The timing of this failure proves particularly challenging. SpaceX’s Starlink network has deployed more than a thousand satellites in 2026 thus far, while its terrestrial broadband subscriber count has climbed to approximately 10 million customers. Starlink continues securing partnership agreements with telecommunications carriers throughout Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania — territories where AST had previously established preliminary partnerships.
Amazon represents another emerging competitor in the direct-to-device connectivity sector. The company’s recent Globalstar acquisition announcement introduces an additional well-capitalized contender pursuing the identical market AST targets, with a projected 2028 launch.
Blue Origin also suffers reputational damage from this incident. The company depends on demonstrating reliable reusable launch capabilities to challenge SpaceX’s commanding position in commercial space transportation.
Wall Street Perspectives
Scotiabank’s Andres Coello — who ranks among the top 1% of equity analysts on Wall Street — expressed skepticism toward ASTS even before this weekend’s developments. His Underperform rating accompanies a $41.20 valuation target, implying approximately 52% downside from Friday’s closing price.
“While we acknowledge the remarkable engineering of ASTS satellites, challenging competitive landscapes, modest average revenue per user, and substantial capital expenditure requirements don’t justify current valuation levels,” Coello stated. He observed that ASTS trades at 34x projected 2027 EV/Sales, exceeding even the estimated 27x–34x valuation range for a potential SpaceX public offering.
The broader analytical consensus remains tepid. Among 11 analysts tracking the equity, four issue Buy recommendations, five maintain Hold positions, and two rate it Underperform. The consensus price target stands at $91.03, suggesting modest 6% appreciation from Friday’s close.
With only six satellites currently operational, AST SpaceMobile must substantially expand its constellation before generating substantial commercial revenue streams.
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