Quick Overview
- Over the last 30 days, DAL stock has climbed approximately 5%, significantly outpacing Southwest, United, and American Airlines, which declined over 10%
- The company reports first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, April 8, prior to market open
- Iran conflict has driven jet fuel costs up 103% to $195 per barrel within a month — Delta maintains a no-hedge policy on fuel
- Wall Street projects Q1 revenue at $14.8B (up 5.38%) with earnings per share of $0.62 versus $0.46 year-over-year
- From a chart perspective, DAL maintains support above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, eyeing the $76 year-to-date peak
As Delta Air Lines prepares to unveil its first-quarter financial results on April 8, the carrier finds itself in a notably stronger position compared to industry competitors. Over the previous month, shares have appreciated roughly 5%, standing in stark contrast to Southwest, United, and American Airlines, each of which has suffered declines exceeding 10% during the identical timeframe.
This performance divergence stems from several strategic factors. Delta has aggressively pursued the premium travel segment, successfully capturing affluent customers who maintain spending patterns even during economic uncertainty. During the fourth quarter, revenue from premium tickets jumped 9% to approach $5.7 billion, whereas main cabin sales declined 7% to $5.62 billion.
The carrier also demonstrated resilience following a challenging period in late February, when shares dipped beneath the 50-day moving average amid rising bond yields and crude oil prices triggered by escalating Iran tensions. A powerful comeback on March 9 enabled DAL to reclaim territory above that critical technical threshold.
Attention now shifts to Wednesday’s announcement.
Wall Street consensus calls for first-quarter revenue of $14.8 billion, representing a 5.38% year-over-year gain, alongside earnings per share of $0.62 compared to $0.46 in the prior-year period. However, these projections face potential headwinds.
Jet Fuel Expenses Emerge as Critical Variable
Unlike many competitors, Delta abstains from hedging jet fuel expenses. This strategic choice is proving costly. According to IATA data, jet fuel prices have rocketed to $195 per barrel — a staggering 103% increase from one month prior — fueled by supply chain disruptions connected to the Iran situation.
This represents a significant margin compression threat. Delta management will likely provide detailed commentary on how geopolitical tensions are reshaping its full-year 2025 projections during the earnings call. While the airline successfully weathered the oil price shock following Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion, the current spike presents formidable challenges.
Management previously issued Q1 adjusted EPS guidance ranging from $0.50 to $0.90, with a midpoint of $0.70 falling marginally below the then-consensus estimate of $0.72.
Looking at the complete fiscal year, Delta has targeted earnings between $6.50 and $7.50 per share. The company anticipates annual revenue reaching $67.2 billion in 2025, climbing to $70 billion by 2026.
Technical Analysis Suggests Upward Momentum
From a charting perspective, DAL has demonstrated solid fundamentals. Following a March trough at $55.20, shares have recovered to approximately $66.70. The stock maintains position above both its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, along with an upward-sloping trendline established since last June.
Recent price action has created a harami candlestick formation — characterized by a compact bullish candle succeeding a larger bearish one — which technical analysts frequently interpret as a possible trend reversal indicator.
The 2025 high of $76 represents the next resistance level, positioned roughly 14% above current trading prices.
In the fourth quarter, Delta generated $16 billion in revenue alongside a $1.5 billion operating profit. Full-year 2024 performance included $63.4 billion in revenue, $5.8 billion in operating profit, and operating cash flow totaling $14.1 billion.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
